- Indices: Sideways in a Neutral regime, Last week after the failed breakout higher in S&P the markets corrected down to the bottom of it’s 3 month range – looking for mean reversion longs.
- Metals: Gold in Bull Quiet, silver, copper and platinum in neutral.
- Energy: Neutral action except for Natural Gas which is in the Bull Quiet regime and moving higher – Looking for longs in RBOB.
- Currencies: Bear Quiet after Bear Volatile regimes signal trending higher.
- Bonds: Bear Quiet turned neutral regimes as they continue to trend higher.
- Ags and Softs: Corn, wheat, and soybeans have been attempting to break out higher but failed. Coffee put in Bull Volatile reversal and continues lower. Cotton trending down on low volatility. Sugar is in neutral regime and retraced back down
- Crypto: Long Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins.
If I’m being honest I don’t understand why a Strategic Shitcoin Reserve was announced today.
My own opinion is that it makes a lot of sense (to me at least) to have a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States, we have a gold reserve and oil reserve after all.
But adding Ethereum, Solana, Cardano and XRP are odd choices.
That being said, the Crypto Czar, David Sachs is a former product manager at PayPal and founded Yammer. He’s part of the PayPal mafia which includes Peter Thiel and Elon Musk to name but a few and of course a very successful Venture Capitalist.
After spending a decent part of my life in tech at both sides of the table, building startups and investing in startups, I can see where the discussion about what products to put in the Crypto Strategic Reserve could have been a white board session designing what this administration would want to see built for the government of the global reserve currency.
Bring these guys in. Have this team do that. Connect it all together into one big mega company.
And if you want to do business with the United States, you have to use our new shiny system.
I’m just spitballing here.
Maybe it really is just as simple as David Sachs personal holdings (Bitwise) were the choice. Maybe those product teams just lobbied this administration the best.
Or maybe it has something to do with the Letters of marque and reprisal by US Congress.
Here’s a link to the thread.
🤷
Nevertheless, everyone on the internet is in agreement that this news kicks off the next crypto rally, bigger than we’ve ever seen.
That may or may not be the case, but I can tell you with certainty that I did not smash the buy button the second the news hit.
This news does have the potential to indeed kick off the biggest rally in crypto history, but until my Crypto Momentum System fires off buy signals I will be sitting on my hands.
If you read my email earlier this week Maximizing Momentum for Superior Returns (It’s my masterclass on trend/momentum), then you likely have a good clue as to what could be expected.
The current best market to trade trends and momentum is the Crypto market, and the reason it’s so good is because it’s so volatile.
Always has been.
If you just yolo into every alt coin that is rallying or try to buy and hold forever, eventually those 80% drawdowns take their toll, and you capitulate.
We want to be in the trend when it’s trending in our direction.
We want to adjust our sizes according to volatility.
And we want to get out when the music stops…not after.
Our system did just that back in December, selling all of our alt coins before the market took an 80% dip…here’s the Meme coins pain.
That’s a nice trend isn’t it?
I’m telling you, the crypto market is amazing for catching trends.
Regime Dashboard
Positions
Long $ZN – US 10 Year Notes – Trend
Long $6E – Euro – Reversion
Long $GF – Feeder Cattle – Trend
Target Setups for Next Week
I’m watching crypto, specifically alt coin sectors next week after today’s announcement, for the trends to start kicking in. I will not jump the gun in anticipation and I will only be trading it with the Crypto Momentum System.
For me there is no reason to even consider trying anything else, it’s what has 20x’ed my account in about a year, with barely any drawdown.
ES, NQ, RBOB, Corn and Cocoa are all setting up for mean reversion longs.
If you are interested in the strategies that I use.
Swing Beast Momentum System
Curvy Mean Reversion System
Crypto Momentum System
And you can work with me on building out your trading business in the Trading Thunderdome
Until then, stay disciplined.
