- Indices: We entered and exited a long NQ trade last week in profits. On Friday, Indices (ES, NQ, YM, RTC) all dipped back into the Bear Quiet market regime. No trade setups.
- Metals: We took profits on all metals positions and now are completely flat the sector. Gold, Copper and Silver are now all in the Bull Quiet market regime and we will be looking for new long entries this coming week. Platinum remains in the neutral market regime with no setups.
- Energy: Neutral market regimes.. Currently long (Curvy) RBOB and in profits.
- Currencies: Currency pairs remain in Bear Quiet or Neutral regimes. We shorted the British Pound this week.
- Bonds: Neutral market regime. No trades
- Ags and Softs: Corn fired a short signal and we are short. Soybeans and Soybean oil are both in the neutral regime and would need a few more days of strength to line up for a Curvy short.
- Crypto: Long (Curvy) Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins.
Weekly Market Overview Video
Your companion to kick off your weekend research and give you insights to what we are looking for the upcoming week.
Returns
- Quant Portfolio is currently at +6.9% on the year (last week +5.4%).
- Macro Discretionary portfolio is up +10.6% on the year.
- SPX is -5.11% on the year.
This current market environment has a lot of traders experiencing both extreme fear and extreme euphoria.
A friend of mine who has been battling it out for two years, a heavy short selling discretionary trading sort of chap, went on a run this past month or so and is up over 700% this year alone!
On the surface we all think we could be that guy, and many people want to play that game. But 2023 and 2024 was brutal for him, eeking out a victory here and there, until the big win this week.
He’s of the mindset that there’s a lot more pain to come. Of course he’s had that mindset every day since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.
On the other hand many folks thought last week that the equity markets bottomed and are expecting that the lows are in for the year.
Friday’s close (-2.30%) in the S&P 500 is making both camps feel all-the-things. If you are a bull, this does not make your bull case too compelling.
And bears are feeling pretty confident that there’s more downside.
Last week I talked about the short term bottom in equities, and we went long Nasdaq futures on the Sunday evening Globex open in a trade that lasted for three days, before exiting. I was open to the idea that it could continue a lot higher but at the same time I wasn’t about to override my system and exited in profits right along with system rules.
On a week where S&P 500 Index (SPX) is down -1.53% our quant portfolio is up another +1.5% this week and at new all time highs.
Do you see the difference between the two people I talked about earlier, the bear guy and the bulls?
Both groups are experiencing extreme volatility and in a constant state of chaos.
Meanwhile our quant portfolio is at all time highs, with barely any pain.
Volatility is low, and we are outperforming SPX.
This isn’t luck, this is by design.
I manage our Quant Portfolio which is a portfolio of different systems. All trades are posted live in the Collective.
It’s not just one system to rule them all. The portfolio of systems is how we achieve low volatility and outperform the market.
These systems are constantly adapting to the market regimes, adapting to volatility and rotating around different assets.
As of this moment due to the different market regimes, these are the current systems running:
- Fast Mean Reversion System = FVBO System
- Slow Mean Reversion System = Curvy System
- Fast Momentum System = Swing Beast System
- Slow Momentum System = Momentum System (the same as crypto momentum system)
Currently we are trading a universe of 35 Futures Contracts.
We have additional systems that are traded as the Market Regimes change and include US Equities and Cryptocurrencies. As of right now those systems are completely flat.
Before you get worried about learning to code, all of these systems are manually executed, no coding required.
There are 10,000 things that people tell you are important and you need to worry about in the markets every day. That’s what makes trading/investing such a challenging task, it’s tempting to get caught up in the complexity.
- None of my systems monitor Presidential Tweets or worry about Tariffs.
- None of my systems spend hours each day reading dozens of research reports.
- None of my systems add indicator after indicator in an effort to remove losing trades.
- None of my systems care about the wording of Jerome Powell’s speeches.
- None of my systems require coding or high frequency trading.
These systems are swing trading systems and only take 15 minutes of my day to trade, at the end of the day.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that getting here was easy.
It takes a lot of work to build systems, but it isn’t as hard as people think.
The key is to find an edge and focus on turning that into a single strategy, just one strategy that works.
We are starting a new cohort of the Trading Thunderdome and this is exactly what we do. This is going pro.
You can learn more and sign up here.
We’re only allowing in a few people to this cohort, so you’ll want to sign up soon.
Regimes Dashboard
Current Positions
Short $6B (British Pound) – Mean Reversion
Long $BTCUSD (Bitcoin) – Trend
Long $RB (RBOB Gasoline) – Mean Reversion
Short $SI (Silver) – Mean Reversion
Setups for next week
Metals-
Looking for longs in Gold and Silver for re-entries – so far this is looking like a continuation trade and in the case of Gold position sizing will be lighter as we head higher in volatility. Silver is just entering the Bull Quiet regime and has lower volatility so sizing will be norma.
Equities-
No setups in US Indices.
Energy-
RBOB (Gasoline) is currently in a mean reversion (Curvy) long, but still in the neutral regime, as it has reached the top end of the range a potential reversal short would take us out of the long in profit while flipping short.
Ags-
Soybeans and Soybean Oil are in neutral regimes with multi-day strength, keeping an eye for a curvy short at the top of the range.
Crypto-
Currently long only Bitcoin a curvy mean reversion long.
If you are interested in the strategies that I use.
And you can work with me on building out your trading business in the Trading Thunderdome
Until then, stay disciplined.
