We start off right away with Alex talking about this month’s Macro Intelligence Report. He explains how a monster rally has left everyone in the rearview mirror and now people are starting to FOMO into the market after a nearly 20% rally from the December 26th lows.
We dig into Alex’s thinking at the end of 2018 of why the equity indexes had bottomed and what sentiment indicators he was looking at to feel confident. When everyone else was bearish it was interesting to see the reaction from fellow market participants after he posted a snipped of his report to Real Vision.
After this discussion we hit the following topics:
Bottoms, what are some reliable, repeatable bottom finding (not top selling) setups
Cash was the highest returning asset in 2018
Value investing with Mr. B.
Garret Motion $GTX up 60% since the market lows
Construction Partners $ROAD up 40% since the market lows
Differences between retail investors and institutional managers, retail DOES NOT HAVE TO BE STYLISTIC
Alex, a political scientist, goes into some depth on capitalism
The craziness of 5:1 leverage to purchase a home…and a flashback to the 1990’s at 16% interest rates for home mortgages
Highlights of being a full time systems trader and nomad
After this barrage, Alex turns the tables on Chris and we learn a bit of his time before and during the military and where he got into systems trading. As a Marine he had visited Thailand and Indonesia during their debt crisis, and saw the effects of Russia defaulting on their currency as well as Pakistan and India getting nukes. He had a front row seat for some of the biggest events in global macro during the late 1990’s.
Barrage number two includes
Key requirements of a trading system
Buffett and Munger discussion
Humility, realizing that you suck but continuously learning from mistakes
Getting comfortable being uncomfortable, truly analyzing what you are doing wrong and getting better over time
Ice baths, extreme heat, building mental toughness and resolve
Paper trading, backtesting, and getting experience
https://i0.wp.com/macro-ops.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/macro-ops-podcast-graphic.jpg?fit=400%2C400&ssl=1400400Chrishttps://macro-ops.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Macro-Ops-logo-e1456504515714.pngChris2019-02-28 13:49:562019-03-05 12:55:34Macro Ops Podcast: Alex, Tyler, Chris and Mr. B talk Macro Intelligence Report, Global Macro in the 90’s, Value, Systems Trading, Volatility, and Wealth