The Naked Sniper… and other lessons on markets and investing

***Enrollment to our Collective ends this Sunday at Midnight. We won’t be running another one for a while, so if you’re interested make sure to sign up. Here’s the link.*** I’m drinking some mead from the local meadery here in town, while sitting on my deck overlooking about a quarter-mile of forest and rivers that […]

HOW TO ANALYZE THE OIL MARKET

***The Following is an excerpt from a Market Note recently sent to Collective members. Click here to learn more*** A short note on oil. Short notes are better than long notes. At least when it comes to analyzing a trade or positioning. If you have to Tolstoy the pitch then you don’t know what the […]

Life’s a Garden, You Dig? [DIRTY DOZEN]

“There was a decision point. He didn’t experience it as a decision point because for him it was obvious what to do. That’s what 20 years of experience buys you. You build up all these patterns, you quickly size up situations, and you know what to do, and that’s why it doesn’t feel like you’re […]

The Best Offense Is A Good Defense Company [Dirty Dozen]

“Seek facts diligently, advice never.” ~ Philip Carret Good morning!   In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at mean reversion and record hedging driving the indices higher, we pair this bullishness with some concerning cyclical action and a downright bearish indicator, before then taking a look at global defense spend, a defense contractor, […]

Materials Making Moves [Dirty Dozen]

“Recently, I was at a money manager roundtable dinner where everyone was talking about “my stock this” and “my stock that”. Their attitude was that it doesn’t matter what is going to happen in the world because their favorite stock is generating free cash flow, buying back shares, and doing XYZ. People always forget that […]

Bull Thrusts, Breadth Thrusts, and Bull Bars [Dirty Dozen]

“In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your […]

A Stampede Out Of Europe [Dirty Dozen]

“Markets tend to move in fits and starts, adopting a thesis and then abandoning it. We try to catch them if we can, but if we can’t, we are better off not trying… I am particularly keen on investment theses that the market is reluctant to accept. These are usually the strongest” ~ George Soros […]

Things Are Not Looking… Good

“Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.” ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky, The […]

Long Ukraine, Democracy, and the Western Alliance…

“So I should say that civilizations begin with religion and stoicism: they end with skepticism and unbelief, and the undisciplined pursuit of individual pleasure. A civilization is born stoic and dies epicurean.” ~ Will Durant Good morning!   This is an extra dirty Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  this week as I’m running on wee sleep and […]

There’s Always A Bull Market Somewhere

***The Following is an excerpt from a Market Note recently sent to Collective members. Click here to learn more*** There’s a lot happening. I’m busy working on a number of larger write-ups, specifically a follow-up piece to my Russia-Ukraine take along with a deep dive into what I see going forward over the next 12-18 […]