“My North Star is every event in the world affects some security and I try to imagine the world as it is today and then try and see if there’s some kind of seismic change going on and how the world might look in 18 months. And if it does look that way, what are […]

What Do We Want? Capitulation… [DIRTY DOZEN]

“Replicating the post-1990 Chinese experience in those countries would amount to a 15-fold increase of steel output, a more than 10-fold boost for cement production, a more than doubling of ammonia synthesis, and a more than 30-fold increase of plastic syntheses.” ~ Vaclav Smil “How The World Really Works” via this book review by Tom […]

Did The Dumb Money Turn Smart? [DIRTY DOZEN]

“You must learn to allow patience and stillness to take over from anxiety and frantic activity… The good player is patient. He is observant, controlling his patience, and organizing his composure. When he sees an opportunity, he explodes.” ~ Jim Lau Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  I again discuss why stocks […]

The Storm Before The Calm… [DIRTY DOZEN]

“There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street […]

The Bears Are Coming Out Of Hibernation…  [DIRTY DOZEN]

 “Comm. Corp. taught me to see the signal, like the signal, follow the signal. If you follow your system /methodology then over time your edge will kick in and you’ll end up ahead.” ~ Micheal Marcus Good morning!   In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at the narrative pendulum swinging closer and closer […]

The Naked Sniper… and other lessons on markets and investing

***Enrollment to our Collective ends this Sunday at Midnight. We won’t be running another one for a while, so if you’re interested make sure to sign up. Here’s the link.*** I’m drinking some mead from the local meadery here in town, while sitting on my deck overlooking about a quarter-mile of forest and rivers that […]


***The Following is an excerpt from a Market Note recently sent to Collective members. Click here to learn more*** A short note on oil. Short notes are better than long notes. At least when it comes to analyzing a trade or positioning. If you have to Tolstoy the pitch then you don’t know what the […]

Life’s a Garden, You Dig? [DIRTY DOZEN]

“There was a decision point. He didn’t experience it as a decision point because for him it was obvious what to do. That’s what 20 years of experience buys you. You build up all these patterns, you quickly size up situations, and you know what to do, and that’s why it doesn’t feel like you’re […]

The Best Offense Is A Good Defense Company [Dirty Dozen]

“Seek facts diligently, advice never.” ~ Philip Carret Good morning!   In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at mean reversion and record hedging driving the indices higher, we pair this bullishness with some concerning cyclical action and a downright bearish indicator, before then taking a look at global defense spend, a defense contractor, […]

Materials Making Moves [Dirty Dozen]

“Recently, I was at a money manager roundtable dinner where everyone was talking about “my stock this” and “my stock that”. Their attitude was that it doesn’t matter what is going to happen in the world because their favorite stock is generating free cash flow, buying back shares, and doing XYZ. People always forget that […]