From Bullish To Bearish In Gold?

Today we’re going to revisit gold. I’m going to explain what’s going on in the gold (GLD) market and what trades we put on last week in the Macro Ops portfolio to take advantage.

Earlier this month I released a video explaining why our team was bullish on this precious metal. But at the end of that video I explained that even though we were bullish, we were still waiting for price to confirm. About a week after we released that video it looked like we finally got our breakout. But we didn’t immediately put on a trade because we wanted to wait for the close to make sure it was real. And that ended up being the right move because as you can see we got a huge breakout failure. It was a bull trap.

This failure was an inflection point. Over the last year gold had everything going for it to rally, but it still failed. The dollar was down almost 15%, we had political drama everywhere, geopolitical tensions were rising from trade wars to potential nuclear strikes, and to top it off we had the rise of inflation narrative coming back front and center.

But gold still failed to breakout higher. And now conditions are actually shifting to become bearish for gold.

Last monday we saw gold break below its triangle pattern. We put on a starter position of just 25 bps to test the waters because we knew there was potential of another fake out. We were also putting on 75 bps of long dollar (UUP) positions at the same time. And going long the dollar is very closely correlated to going short gold, so we needed to size smaller when considering our total portfolio construction. By Thursday we saw the follow through in gold that we wanted and put on another 25 bips on, doubling our position. Again we sized a bit smaller because we also doubled our dollar position. And now we’re going to sit and wait for the trend to play out.

For more be sure to check out the video above!

And as always, stay Fallible investors!



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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.