Entries by Aldrin Gonzales

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Liquidity: The Most Important Fundamental

I’m sure you’ve heard analysts, financial pundits, and other babbling heads yabber on and on about how these markets don’t reflect the “fundamentals”. They’ve ranted non-stop about how the fundamentals prove that a bear market is around the corner. They’ve raved about valuations being stretched and how stocks will collapse any day now… If you’ve […]

Profiting From French Election Volatility

Attempting to predict the outcome of an election is a fool’s errand — we don’t bother with it. But that doesn’t mean we can’t make money off the vote… Over the last few weeks we’ve discussed the reasons for the rise of populism and how it’s impacted the false trend in European equities. We explained […]

Donald Trump: The Embodiment Of Trading Greatness

Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner, Jesse Livermore… forget about em. The only name you need to know when it comes to trading greatness is Donald Trump. He’s everything a trader should aspire to be. When it comes to having “strong opinions, weakly held”, Trump has EXTREMELY strong opinions, EXTREMELY weakly held. At the beginning of […]

Trading A Le Pen Win In The French Elections

Success in the markets requires thinking in possibilities. A great trader understands the permanent information deficit he’s faced with and why it makes market prediction impossible. All he can do is plan for a range of reasonable outcomes and adjust his strategy as new information presents itself.   In the latest issue of our Macro […]

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Traders As Modern Day Hunter-Gatherers

Entering the market is like entering an entirely different world. This world functions nothing like modern society. Modern society has laws and social norms in place to protect you. If you screw up, you have a safety net. People will generally reach out and help. Modern society is cushy. Even people who are disabled, suffering […]

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Markets as a Range of Reasonable Opinions

The following is from The Philosopher in Drobny’s classic The Invisible Hands (emphasis mine): Some people can trade markets using only numbers, prices on a screen but this approach does not work for me. The numbers have to mean something — I have to understand the fundamental drivers behind the numbers. And while fundamentals are […]

Is The Dollar About To Break?

A couple of my favorite quotes from legendary trader Bruce Kovner are: What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong. As an alternative approach, one of the traders I know does very […]