A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK]

Global macro is the willingness to opportunistically look at every idea that comes along, from micro situations to country-specific situations, across every asset category and every country in the world. It’s the combination of a broad top-down country analysis with a bottom-up microanalysis of companies. In many cases, after we make our country decisions, we then drill down and analyze the companies in the sectors that should do well in light of our macro view.

I never lock myself down to investing in one style or in one country because the greatest trade in the world could be happening somewhere else. My advice is to make sure that you do not become too much of an expert in one area. Even if you see an area that is inefficient today, it’s likely that it won’t be inefficient tomorrow. Expertise is overrated. ~ Jim Leitner

Good morning!

We’ve got record disconnects between flows and returns, unusual stock and bond performance, a wide disparity in sentiment between both, and much more… Let’s jump in.

1. Chart and note via BofAML with emphasis by me “Who’s buying: note record disconnect between flows & returns in 2019, only similar year was 2016; buybacks = #1 source of market support in 2H’19; US banks announced $129bn buybacks next 4 quarters.” See chart #5 from last week’s Dozen. Buybacks are set to accelerate beginning in August and run strong into the end of the year.

2. “STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED, STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED!!” The S&P 500 is trading at a P/FCF multiple that is well below its historical average (Chart via @1MainCapital).

3. There have only been 10 other times over the last 75-years when stocks and bonds have both put up double-digit returns over the same six month period (chart via NDR).

4. Stocks went on to outperform bonds each and every time over the following 12-months (chart via NDR).

5. BofAML’s Bull & Bear Indicator is close to triggering a “buy signal”. The indicator shows sentiment and positioning are near “extreme bear” territory.

6. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high last week.

7. The Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index ($NASI) reversed from a temporary sell signal and is back in a strong uptrend.

8. Daily Sentiment (DSI) for the Nasdaq (NDX) relative to bonds is at extremely depressed levels (chart via @MacroCharts).

9. Consensus Inc’s Bond Sentiment Index shows bond bullishness at 7-year highs.

10. Morgan Stanley’s US Cycle Indicator is still in a downturn.

11. The US unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% last week but is still well below its 12 and 36-month moving averages.

12. BofAML’s Asset Quilt of Total Returns. Notice how the returns for each asset class have almost entirely flipped from last year?

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.