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@the10thman1: Carvana $CVNA Deep Dive

Today’s episode we had a conversation with the anonymous twitter account @the10thman1 about his exceptional Carvana’s bull thesis. We covered everything that an investor needs to know about Carvana, whether it is Carvana’s history, the used car industry, Carvana’s Competitive advantages, what Carvana needs to improve in order to succeed, the bear thesis against Carvana and @the10thman1’s fair value for Carvana.

  • [0:00] Who is @the10thman1?
  • [8:30] Expectation Investing
  • [12:00] From Energy to Carvana ($CVNA )
  • [15:30] CVNA’s History
  • [19:40] The Used Car Industry
  • [26:00] A Better Way to Present Inventory Online
  • [28:00] Exceptional Quality Control
  • [30:00] Test Driving a used card with CVNA
  • [31:30] Seamless, Easy and Fast with CVNA
  • [36:00] CVNA’s Competitive Advantages
  • [36:10] Market Network Effects
  • [40:00] Economies of Scale
  • [44:00] Increasing Retail GPU
  • [55:00] Customer Financing
  • [58:00] Carvana Will Issue Equity
  • [1:00:00] CVNA’s Bear Thesis
  • [1:01:00] Insiders are Selling
  • [1:04:00] Trusting Management with a Rocky Past
  • [1:06:00] Competition
  • [1:08:00] Carvana’s Fair Value
  • [1:15:00] @the10thman1’s watchlist
  • [1:17:00] Closing Questions

If you liked what you heard, PLEASE go follow @the10thman1 on Twitter and subscribe to his website. He writes excellent content that’s always worth a read.

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Brandon Beylo

Senior Partner at MO, PM at Foundation Capital, lead value investor, ValueHive podcast host, and a tennis nut. https://www.x.com/marketplunger1

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

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AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

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Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

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Alex Barrow

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Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.

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