Operators Dashboard

APEI: An Online Education Stock Ready To Breakout

It’s that time again! Once a month I pull breakout alerts from our premium Breakout Alerts service. Members of the service receive 6-8 potential breakout opportunities each week.

This week we’ve got a play on the COVID back-to-school crisis. Schools have no idea what they’re doing for the upcoming year. This should bode well for online education alternatives.

Enter American Public Education (APEI).

The company provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. Revenues have slowed the last few years but we saw an uptick in the last quarter. APEI trades around 15x its free cash flow.

If online education ramps up dramatically, those cash flows will expand (and likely its multiple).

Anyways, here’s the alert. Our premium members receive 6-8 breakout alerts every week. So far we’re up 33.20% on the year from our Breakout Alerts.

Breakout Formation: Inverse Head & Shoulders w/ Double Bottom

Trade Parameters: 

  • 3% Entry: $34.74
  • 1.50% Entry: $34.24
  • Stop-Loss: $30.54
  • Profit Target: $47.00
  • Reward/Risk: 3.45x

Business Description

American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. The company operates in two segments, American Public Education and Hondros College of Nursing.

It offers 121 degree programs and 111 certificate programs in various fields of study, including business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts, as well as national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security. The company also provides diploma in practical nursing, an associate degree in nursing, and an associate degree in medical laboratory technology. – TIKR.com

Financials: 

  • Market Cap: $480M
  • Enterprise Value: $296M
  • Gross Margins: 62%
  • Operating Margins: 8%
  • EV/EBIT: 16x
  • EV/FCF: 9x

What We Like:

  • Play on COVID online education
  • Receivables turnover (growing) QoQ & DSO shrinking
  • $184M in cash on balance sheet
  • Trading <1x EV/Revenues
  • FCF positive

What We Don’t Like:

  • Negative Revenue growth
  • <4% operating margins
Picture of Brandon Beylo

Brandon Beylo

Senior Partner at MO, PM at Foundation Capital, lead value investor, ValueHive podcast host, and a tennis nut. https://www.x.com/marketplunger1

Related Posts

Navigation
Contact
Facebook-f X-twitter Linkedin-in

An Unparalleled Investment Research Community For Traders and Investors.

All content in this page, on our website, all emails, social media posts, comments on other websites or other material generated by Macro Ops is intended for general information and educational purposes only. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Click here for full disclaimer.

© 2024.  | All Rights Reserved.

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

Linkedin-in Twitter

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Youtube

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Linkedin-in Twitter

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.

Linkedin-in Twitter