Yield Curve Inversion!? Flattening Yield Curve Explained

The Yield Curve Inversion Secrets! Understanding the Flattening Yield Curve is crucial for any trader or investor!

Today we’re going to talk about the yield curve. Recently the financial media has been raving about the yield curve getting closer and closer to inverting and how it’s a signal that a recession is right around the corner. In this video we’re going to go over what the yield curve is, how to use it, and what it’s really signalling about the market.

The yield curve is basically just a line that plots the yield of US treasury bonds (TLT) with different maturity dates. The curve lets you easily compare rates on short term bonds versus long term bonds. When long term bonds are yielding more than short term bonds, the line rises from left to right. And when this is the case, it’s called a normal yield curve. This is signal that the economy and market are doing okay.

When you start to see the yield curve flatten or even invert, meaning short-term rates become equal to or higher than long-term rates, and the line either becomes flat or sloped lower from left to right, then that usually signals trouble ahead in terms of a recession and lower market prices.

Two things happen for the yield curve to become like this. First, the Fed starts raising short-term rates. Based on their mandates, they may see the economy overheating and decide to raise rates to slow it down. Higher rates hurt economic expansions.

Second, investor expectations for the future become negative. And because of that, they buy up long-term bonds, lowering their yield. Those two together you a flat or inverted yield curve where short term bonds yield the same or even more than long-term bonds. And like this signals trouble ahead.

According to our analysis, yes the curve is beginning to flatten and invert, but we still have a lot of time left before this bull iis done. Make sure to watch the video above for more!

And as always, stay Fallible investors!

Related Posts

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.