In this week’s episode, I review recent improvements across my market models and break down some unusual price action within the VIX complex, particularly on Friday. I also revisit the dynamics between individual stock volatility, implied correlations, and index vol, as well as movements in credit spreads and shifting equity futures positioning.
Topics this week include:
-Market HRV model recovery alongside ongoing EWS cautionary signals
-VIX decomposition, parallel curve shifts, and over/undervixing
-Market up/vol up → market down/vol down
-VVIX coiling signal and subtle VIX futures disconnect
-VIXEQ’s impact on index vol
-Why speculator positioning in index futures points to a rotation back into Nasdaq
Here we go!