Turkey Is The Best Performing Market This Year…

The securities we typically analyze are those that reflect the behavioral anomalies arising from largely emotional reactions to events. In the broadest sense, those securities reflect low expectations of future value creation, usually arising from either macroeconomic or microeconomic events or fears. Our research efforts are oriented toward determining whether a large gap exists between those low embedded expectations and the likely intrinsic value of the security. The ideal security is one that exhibits what Sir John Templeton referred to as “the point of maximum pessimism. ~ Bill Miller

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK], we look at poor short-term breadth signals, better action outside of the US, record low relative valuations, and the best performing market this year, plus more…

  1. Summary of BofA’s latest Flow Show with highlights from me.


  1. YoY% home prices have turned negative in a number of DMs.


  1. The market is pricing in peak Fed Funds rate by early next Spring followed by an aggressive succession of rate cuts (chart via BBG).


  1. The McClellan Summation and Oscillator breadth indicators are rolling over. The oscillator (light blue line) is one of my favorite short-term breadth measures. The red dots mark every time its turned negative following a +200 reading since the start of the year.


  1. And our other short term measure of breadth flipped into the red last week, which isn’t a good look for the bulls.


  1. A number of markets outside of the US have been showing strong relative strength over the past two months. And many of them also have the added benefit of being much cheaper. This chart from JPM shows the EU is at a record low relative to the RoW on a PE basis.


  1. The same can be said about the UK as well…


  1. One UK company we’ve covered in the Collective that we like is TrustPilot (TRST), which looks close to completing a 6-month cup-n-handle bottom.


  1. UBS makes the case for high over low “quality” stocks here.


  1. MS expects a reopening China to help further drive down input costs and inflation for the rest of the world.


  1. Forget US equities, look at the action in the German DAX which has shown strong relative performance over the past few months. The DAX put in 9 weekly bull bars, which is an unusually strong impulse. And it’s now in a Bull Quiet regime and entering a compression zone on the daily.



  1. You have to go to Turkey though to find the best performing market ytd. The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) is up +75% so far this year, after breaking out of a 5-year rectangle base.

Thanks for reading.

Stay frosty and keep your head on a swivel.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

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