Trading Politics – Part 1

Tyler here. 

This month I started a video series called Trading Politics over on our partner youtube channel Fallible

The first video introduces the most popular political prediction market in the United States, PredictIt.

In the past we’ve used the prediction markets on PredictIt to help us position our portfolio during key election events. 

The two most notable ones were the Trump upset in 2016 and then the subsequent French election in 2017 when the whole world was freaking out about Le Pen taking charge. 

When the markets on PredictIt diverge from the option markets going into an event there’s money to be made because someone is wrong… either the traders on PredictIt or the traders in the market. 

There are multiple ways to play a disparity, you can take an outright position on a PredictIt political contract or another option is to go into traditional financial markets and find a trade that will benefit off of a political “surprise.”

Since the 2016/2017 election year, interest in politics (and betting on its outcomes) has increased considerably. 

PredictIt spreads 100s of markets now ranging from election results, to impeachment odds, to weekly tweet markets for Trump.

(Yes you read that right you can make money betting on how many times Trump will tweet in a week!)

I’m starting the Trading Politics series to gear everyone up for the 2020 election year. I expect fireworks again just like the 2016 election year that will bring us a ton of opportunity to profit using the PredictIt platform as dumb money flows in to back their favorite candidate. 

We recently partnered with PredictIt and they’ve given all of our readers an opportunity to earn a 100% match on their initial deposit up to $20. 

All you have to do is click the link below and deposit $20, then PredictIt will match it and you can start trading on the platform! 

Click here to open up a PredictIt account and claim your free $20! 

I’m excited for this. Trading a market like PredictIt not only allows us to make money on the politico noise, it also serves as a valuable cross-training tool for financial trading. The skills we pick up by sniping the PredictIt mispricings will carry over into our normal trading and level us up further. 

That’s all I got for today! 

Happy Trading.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.