Time to Yen…

“One of the jobs of a good trader is to imagine alternative scenarios. I try to form many different mental pictures of what the world should be like and wait for one of them to be confirmed. You keep trying them on one at a time. Inevitably, most of these pictures will turn out to be wrong — that is, only a few elements of the picture may prove correct. But then, all of a sudden, you will find that in one picture, nine out of ten elements click. That scenario then becomes your image of the world reality.” ~ Bruce Kovner

Good morning! 

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  we look at two scenarios (1) summer doldrum chop and vol and (2) a growth led buy climax. We then go through the latest BofA fund manager survey, look at falling inflation expectations, gold at an inflection, and some yen charts, plus more…

Let’s dive in. 

***click charts to enlarge*** 

  1. We’re entertaining two macro takes right now (1) the market is about to roll over into a couple months of sideways chop and vol summer doldrums style or (2) market rips higher first, led by growth, and then rolls over and enters an extended range. This cycle composite chart via NDR shows the potential path of the latter (h/t @MacroCharts).


  1. All Star Charts show that year 2 of a bull is often an extended period of consolidation.


  1. If the market doesn’t go right into the summer doldrums here then growth looks poised to outperform. Growth vs Value weekly RSI is turning up from deeply oversold levels. 


  1. BofAML’s June Global Fund Manager Survey is out. Here’s this month’s highlights.


  1. And a few interesting charts of note from the report. According to the survey, very few managers are expecting a selloff of much size over the next 6-months. 


  1. Economic expectations have peaked… BoFAML notes that “5 episodes of ‘peak FMS optimism’ since 1994 were followed by 75bps drop in 10-year Treasury yield”.  


  1. @benbreitholtz shared the following chart, tweeting “investors beginning to price OUT headline CPI above 2.5% YoY. Inflation swap caps/floors back to sub-50% probabilities for next 5-30 years. Many of the previously high-flying commodities rolling over in unison. Investors seeminly buying into the ‘transitory’ mantra.”  


  1. Gold is at a major technical inflection point. The fundamental bull case is as strong as ever but gold needs to hold its current price range or else the odds rise it’ll see another couple months of chop and vol.

The chart below is from a Collective report that went out over the weekend. It shows that gold tends to respect its BB midline when in a bull market. This week will be telling. 


  1. The Delta variant, a particularly virulent form of COVID, is starting to sweep across the world. 



  1. Japanese yen (JPY) looks interesting for a long here. Our CoT oscillator shows short-term positioning and seasonality (both 5 and 30-year) are favorable.


  1. 11. While JPYUSD 10-year differentials are beginning to move in the yen’s favor.


  1. Momentum has bottomed out and the chart shows a potential double bottom in place.

I wouldn’t play it against the dollar, which itself looks set for a sizable position driven bounce. Short EURJPY though has a great chart and the euro has crowded longs to work off.


If you enjoy reading these Dirty Dozens each week then please feel free to share them on the Twitters, forward them to a friend, or translate them via smoke signal… Every bit helps us get our name out there. 

Thank you for reading! 

Stay safe out there and keep your head on a swivel.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.