The Trader Who Wasn’t

What’s your greatest natural strength as a trader?

I ask every new member of our Collective this question. Most answer quickly. Kiran couldn’t.

I believe I harness the ability to see the big picture,” he wrote to me. “But I noticed that I don’t take trades, or my timing is off. How can I improve this?

The standard recommendations would be purely tactical: timeframe alignment, position sizing, a framework for scaling in or out.

But something in his answer stopped me.

I’ve learned that when someone describes a “weakness,” it’s often not a weakness at all. It’s a strength overshadowed by the wrong context.

I probed deeper: “Give me a specific example of a recent ‘big picture’ view you had that was ultimately correct, but where your execution felt mistimed or didn’t happen at all?

His answer revealed everything.

Kiran told me about RBLX. He bought it at the IPO on fundamental conviction. He saw the moat, believed in the growth story.

He watched it double, didn’t sell, then watched it fall 60%. He held through the entire drawdown: over three years. Eventually, RBLX recovered, Kiran’s thesis proved correct, and he sold his position for a profit.

Kiran told this story as a failure:

I would have liked to exit at the double and then get back into the position. I’m not too good at taking profits. I always think [my high-conviction bets] will rise more. I need to improve that skillset.

Kiran had made a high-conviction investment, held through extraordinary volatility, been proven right, made money … and was beating himself up for not trading the cycles in between.

Kiran wasn’t a trader struggling with discipline. He was an investor drowning in trader guilt.

I helped him see who he actually was.

If you could design your ideal approach to markets with no judgment from others, what would it look like?”

He sat with it. Then: “I would make 5-10 high-conviction investments per year and manage them over 2-5 year periods.

There it was.

Not because I told him. Because he finally let himself say it.

The “missed opportunities” he’d been flagging—the cycles he could have traded within RBLX’s big move—weren’t real. They were fiction.

The version of himself who perfectly timed the double, had the courage to buy back at -60%, and rode it back up, doesn’t exist.

If he’d tried to trade those cycles, he almost certainly would have found re-entering during the drawdown too unsettling and messy—and ended with less money and more regret than the investor who simply held.

What Kiran needed wasn’t better discipline. He needed permission to lean into what he does naturally well and others find genuinely difficult: holding high-conviction investments through massive cyclical volatility that would shake out even the most cold-blooded short-term traders.

We built a simple structure around who Kiran actually was:

5-8 positions maximum, 18-to-24-month minimum holds, and a quarterly review of each position based not on time or price, but on the original business metrics that had validated the investment in the first place.

We agreed to one tactical overlay for regret management: when a position doubles, consider trimming 25-50%—not to redeploy, but to create dry powder for the next high-conviction idea.

Just portfolio management within an investor framework.

Not fixing weaknesses. Sharpening the right strength.


I believe Kiran’s struggle is more common than most traders realize. How many of us are trading a certain way because we think we should?

How many of us are experiencing not a skill deficit, but an identity mismatch: trying to execute one strategy while our psychology is quietly wired for another?

The fastest path to consistency isn’t learning to override our natural tendencies. It’s building around them.

So here’s the question worth sitting with:

Are you trying to fix a genuine weakness, or overshadowing a real strength by the wrong context? Are you struggling with discipline, or struggling with an identity that was never meant to be yours?

Kiran is no longer fighting himself. He’s building on who he naturally is.

If you’re ready to build on who you actually are—not who another trader says you should be—I invite you to join the Macro Ops Collective, where mastery in markets and mastery of self are considered intrinsically inseparable.

Enrollment is open until this Sunday at midnight.

I look forward to seeing you—and your natural strengths—inside.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.