- Indices: Mixed between Neutral and Bear Quiet market regimes, we are only focused on daytrading these as there are no swing trading or longer term setups.
- Metals: We are currently long Gold and Copper, both are in the Bull Quiet market regime and signaled longs this week. Silver is potentially setting up for a mean reversion short.
- Energy: Neutral action and looking for mean reversion moves higher, except for Natural Gas which is in the Bull Quiet regime but behaving like a high volatile asset — looking for longs in RBOB.
- Currencies: Currency pairs remain in Bear Quiet or Neutral regimes. Euro and Swiss Franc are setting up for mean reversion shorts.
- Bonds: Neutral regimes but like Indices, no setups.
- Ags and Softs: Corn, soybean oil, feeder cattle and live cattle are all setting up for long trades, either mean reversion or trend.
- Crypto: Long Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins.
Last week I shared the Weekly Market Overview in the weekly email and I got a lot of good feedback.
So we decided to merge the two.
You can read this email or watch the video to get the same information about our process and how we are preparing for next week.
The equity markets took a solid beating this past few weeks with the SPX having a -10.50% drawdown from its recent highs after being up about +3.5% on the year.
Meanwhile, our Quant portfolio is currently at +2.5% in profits for 2025, down from its peak of +5% while our Macro Discretionary portfolio is up +10.3% on the year. You can find real-time alerts for both ports in our Collective.
Our total drawdown was about -4.4%, while SPX total drawdown from peak is about -14%
I posted this update in the Swing Alerts Channel in the Collective.
Since posting that, we have got long gold (again) and copper, with decent profits already locked in.
During a pretty challenging environment, simply adapting to the market regime changes, following our systems, and taking the trades as they come has allowed us to easily outperform the market and remain positive for the year.
And that’s what we’ll work through in this week’s Weekly Market Overview video.
We go chart by chart through the different indices, fixed income, currencies, metals, energy, agriculture, soft commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
First, we establish their regimes using the SQN indicator (I have a video coming out explaining how I use it).
When we know the market regimes, we can select the appropriate system to apply to trade each asset.
We don’t have to guess what to trade and how to trade it.
Each market regime behaves differently, so we trade each regime differently.
And not only do we use the appropriate system for the market regime, but the regime also defines our risk.
In higher volatility regimes, we size down; in low volatility regimes, we size up.
You can watch me go through the process in this weeks video HERE
In the next section, our Regime Dashboard is where the universe of assets we trade is categorized by regime and what type of system we’re using to trade that regime.
The results of what we’re focusing on for the upcoming week are included at the end of this email in the Setups for Next Week section.
Remember that simply because we are tracking setups in different assets doesn’t mean we are entering any trades at this time. We still have to wait for the setup conditions to trigger and for the tape to pull us into the trades.
Whatever we talk about in the videos or emails is what we are looking for, not what we are doing, unless otherwise stated.
Regime Dashboard
Current Positions
Long $GC (Gold) – Trend
Long $HG (Copper) – Trend
Long $BTCUSD (Bitcoin) – Trend
Setups for next week
Energy-
The energy complex is in the Neutral market regime and setting up for a long trade.
RBOB is setup for a Curvy Long.
Currencies-
Euro was a long we were in for the past month or so and it gave us a nice 3R winner. At this point in the regime, with its current overextension, I’m looking for a Curvy mean reversion short.
Swiss Franc is also setting up for a Curvy short in the neutral regime.
Ags-
Corn is in the Bull Quiet regime and setting up in a Curvy long.
Soybean Oil is in a Neutral regime and also setting up for a Curvy long
Feeder Cattle and LIve Cattle are both in a Bull Quiet market regime and setting up for Swing Beast trades long.
If you are interested in the strategies that I use.
And you can work with me on building out your trading business in the Trading Thunderdome
Until then, stay disciplined.
