The GREATEST Market Rally of All-Time [DIRTY DOZEN]

“They think that intelligence is about noticing things that are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns).” ~ Nassim Taleb, “The Bed of Procrustes”

Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the measured move target on the Qs, go through the top highlights + a number of charts from the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, celebrate the greatest market rally of all-time, plus more…

Let’s dive in.

***click charts to enlarge***

  1. BofA’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey is out. Below are the highlights.


  1. Sentiment and positioning are hot. But if you’ve been focused solely on these variables then you’ve been kept out of a very rewarding market. That’s why it pays to have a process that uses a Trifecta of inputs as we do at MO. Breadth, liquidity, and of course, the tape, have kept us in and buying. The next target on the Qs is the 14k level.


  1. It’s official… this is now “The greatest rally of all time” via BofA.


  1. Speaking of hot sentiment and crowded positioning, Goldman’s Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI), which “aggregates 27 risk premia and procyclical pair trades across assets” rose sharply last week to close above 1 — a level that’s only been crossed a few other times over 30-years of data.


  1. Historically, this hasn’t led to great 1, 3, and 12-month returns according to GS.


  1. According to BofA’s FMS a record number of investors are taking higher than normal levels of risk.


  1. They now have a record overweight position in EM equities.


  1. Inflation expectations are at record highs.


  1. Steeper yield curve expectations are at… you guessed it, record highs.


  1. The consensus expects above-trend growth and below-trend inflation. The only other time where the consensus was more positive on the outlook was on Jan 18’.


  1. Greater rebounding growth in the US relative to the rest-of-the-world might turn the “Dollar smile” back to driving the US dollar higher. This, of course, would put the pinch on all these record consensus expectations… Chart via @MacroCharts


  1. According to BofA, “41 billionaires are now as rich as the poorest half of the world’s population.”


Stay safe out there and keep your head on a swivel.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.