- Indices: Trending higher in a Bull Quiet regime.
- Metals: Gold in Bull Quiet, silver, copper and platinum in neutral.
- Energy: Neutral action.
- Currencies: Bear Quiet, or Bear Volatile regimes.
- Bonds: Bear Quiet, or Bear Volatile regimes.
- Ags and Softs: Corn, wheat and Soybeans have been attempting to breakout higher. Coffee up over 100% in a year. Cotton trending lower on low volatility.
- Crypto: Long Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins.
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REMINDER: If you have already signed up for The Thunderdome, we begin Monday after the US market session closes.
Today is the last day to sign up for the Thunderdome before our next session, which has not yet been scheduled.
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Welcome back to another Sunday Setup, where we put the market under a microscope and prepare for the week ahead.
If you’re serious about trading, you already know that success isn’t about reacting—it’s about preparing. We don’t trade on emotions, news headlines, or gut feelings. We trade on structure, setups, and risk management. The market doesn’t care about what you think should happen; it only rewards those who align with the flows and execute with discipline.
Let’s get into it.
Right now, we’re in a Bull Quiet regime for equities, with the indices grinding higher. This environment favors trend-following strategies—buying strength and staying on the right side of momentum. In contrast, metals are mixed, with gold standing out in Bull Quiet while silver, copper, and platinum remain in neutral territory. Energy markets are still a non-event—nothing to get excited about until we see a structural shift in volatility and direction.
On the macro side, we see clear weakness in currencies and bonds, both sitting in Bear Quiet or Bear Volatile regimes. This signals a strong trend down. Ags and Softs have been more interesting—corn, wheat, and soybeans are showing breakout potential, while coffee has put in a monster run, up over 100% in a year. Cotton, on the other hand, continues to grind lower on low volatility.
And then there’s crypto. Long Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins. No need to overcomplicate it.
Positions and Target Setups
For those tracking with us in the Collective, our current positions align with the prevailing macro regimes. We’re long ES (S&P 500) and GC (Gold) as part of our trend-following strategy. Feeder Cattle (GE) and Corn (ZC) are also in play, both riding strong trends. On the mean reversion side, we’re short Platinum (PL), waiting for the pullback to play out.
Looking ahead, we’ve got two high-conviction plays on the radar:
- Short 30-Year Bonds (ZB) – Looking for a move up into resistance before taking a short position with a sell stop. This is a classic curvy setup: mean reversion into a trend within a bear quiet regime.
- Short Japanese Yen (6J) – Same setup as bonds, waiting for price action confirmation before pulling the trigger.
Exact parameters for these trades will be shared inside the Collective if and when they materialize. As always, it’s about reading the flow, executing with precision, and managing risk.
Macro Regime Overview
Current Positions
Long ES (S&P 500) – Trend
Long GC (Gold) – Trend
Long GE (Feeder Cattle) – Trend
Long ZC (Corn) – Trend
Short PL (Platinum) – Mean Reversion
Target Setups for next week
Short 30 Year Bonds – Curvy setup short (mean reversion into a trend) in bear quiet trend down.
Short Japanese Yen – Curvy setup short (mean reversion into a trend) in bear quiet trend down.
ZB (30 Year T-Bond Futures) – looking for a move up then to be pulled into a short position with a sell stop. I will lay out the exact parameters for this trade in the Collective if it takes shape this week.
6J (Japanese Yen Futures) – Similarly looking for price action to confirm then entry conditions to get short, similar to the drawing on the chart. I will lay out the exact parameters for this trade in the Collective if it takes shape this week.
Concluding Remarks
This is a big earnings week, with a lot of companies reporting.
On top of that Fed Chair Powell testifies, we get inflation and growth data on the economics calendar.
Whatever indecision there is about the state of the economy should be resolved this week. A lot of the unknowns will be known, which will allow large market participants to dial up or dial down their positioning.
With so much to report and all the indecision, it makes for a strong “Tape Bomb” type of market. That is, when a Tweet or mention about Tariffs hits the tape, markets overreact.
I’m expecting this week will remove a lot of those unknowns, and then we’ll see if that makes the tape bombs have less of an impact.
Regardless, the market regimes are my guide to which strategies to deploy. Then, it’s all about position sizing/risk management to keep the equity curve trending in the right direction.
Reminder:we will beclosing access to The Thunderdome for new members on Sunday night. This is the last chance for this cohort to get signed up.
