Stolen Press Releases, Market Tops, and A Long In Gold

Tyler here with this week’s Macro Musings.

As always, if you come across something cool during the week, shoot me an email at tyler@macro-ops.com and I’ll share it with the group.


Recent Articles/Videos —

Peter Brandt On Drawdowns — PLB talks about how to manage those nasty market drawdowns.

Jack Schwager On Risk Management — Jack explains why it pays to focus on your exits over your entries.

Did Wall Street Kill Toys “R” Us? — Distressed debt funds are cold blooded…


Article I’m reading —

How an international hacker network turned stolen press releases into $100 million — This is the craziest insider trading story I have ever read. If you got 15 minutes to spare check this out. It’s a highly entertaining read about how a few Eastern European hackers were able to get away with seeing the news before everyone else for years on end. These guys made HFT news algos look late to the party!

 

Chart I’m looking at —

The US stock market is back at all-time highs. We’ve been making this call for months now based off of the US macro fundamental picture, relative strength in the USD, and favorable liquidity conditions. Now that we are here it’s time to ask what’s next. The quant metrics would tell us that more highs are ahead. You can see the table above from @oddstats that a breakout in the S&P 500 is usually followed by more all-time highs.

We’re positioned accordingly with almost all of our open risk allocated to US stocks.


Podcast I’m listening to —

Naval Ravikant: The Angel Philosopher on Investing, Making Decisions, Happiness and the Meaning of Life [The Knowledge Project Ep. #18] — This one has been recommended to me so many times by pretty much everyone on the internet. And after listening, I will join the chorus as well. Naval’s a beast of a thinker and has so much wisdom to share. I love his mental models for making critical decisions which he explains in great detail on this podcast.


Trade I’m considering —

Gold has accumulated an extremely short spec position over the last few months.

Even though we are long-term bearish on gold, a short-term long looks attractive here. Once the price action starts to reverse, all of the shorts will have to rush for the exits creating a sharp countertrend rally. It’s worth a punt.


Quote I’m pondering —

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. ~ Bernard Baruch

This has certainly been the case this summer! So many top callers… and now none of them left standing.

That’s it for this week’s Macro Musings.

If you’re not already, be sure to follow us on Twitter: @MacroOps and on Stocktwits: @MacroOps. Alex posts his mindless drivel there daily.

Here’s a link to our latest global macro research. And here’s another to our updated macro trading strategy and education.

 

 

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.