Should You Buy Gold Here?

Should you be buying gold (GLD) right now? With all this crazy market volatility is it a good idea?

If you look at the monthly chart of gold it’s about to complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern. And if it does, we should see prices trend higher.

What’s interesting about a break higher in gold is the effect it’ll have on the US dollar (UUP).

Gold tends to have an inverse correlation with the dollar. If gold is trending higher, then the dollar is trending lower. And vise-versa.

The reason for that is that gold acts like the anti-dollar. It’s a safe haven and inflation hedge. So when the dollar weakens, people start moving their money into gold because it’s seen as a better store of value.

But for some reason, in this relationship between the two, gold actually tends to lead the dollar. So if gold breaks out here, we’ll likely see a leg down in the dollar.

That would kick off a reflexive loop where a weaker dollar encourages even more investors to get into gold. And that’ll fuel the gold rally even more, pushing the dollar down even further. And the cycle would repeat.

There’s a few other factors working for gold here too, including the relative momentum of US equities (SPY) versus emerging markets (EEM). When SPY is stronger than EEM, gold tends to fall. But when EEM is stronger than SPY, gold tends to rise.

Right now EEM is outperforming SPY. And this outperformance between emerging markets and US equities over the last 2-years looks very similar to the 99’-01’ period, which ended up being the start of a major bull market in gold.

If this analog holds, and emerging market stocks continue to outperform the US, then we should see gold start another bull market soon.

One of the vehicles we’re looking at to play this trend is the South South African miner Anglogold Ashanti (AU). The gold ETF GLD is also an option.

Watch the video above for more details!

And if you’re interested in the specifics of which equities we’re going to be playing this gold trend with, then check out the Macro Intelligence Report (MIR). In this month’s issue we’ll be covering our gold trades in more depth. Click here if you’re interested in getting that report.



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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.