- Indices: Mixed between Neutral and Bear Quiet market regimes, we are only focused on daytrading ES. I have a Curvy long entry on to buy NQ for a swing trade.
- Metals: This has been a really great trade for us. We just exited Gold (Swing Beast) long for +2.5R, still long (Swing Beast) Copper, and went short (Curvy) yesterday in Silver, all with stops adjusted up to lock in profits. Another Swing Beast buy signal just fired on Gold.
- Energy: Neutral action and looking for Curvy mean reversion moves higher. Currently long (Curvy) RBOB and in profits.
- Currencies: Currency pairs remain in Bear Quiet or Neutral regimes. No trades
- Bonds: Neutral regimes but like Indices. No trades
- Ags and Softs: Still a lot of volatility in these markets. No trades.
- Crypto: Long (Curvy) Bitcoin, flat on all altcoins.
Returns
- Quant portfolio is currently at +5.4% on the year.
- Macro Discretionary portfolio is up +10.6% on the year.
- SPX is -4.97% on the year.
You can find real-time alerts for both portfolios in our Collective.
This week, in the Quant portfolio (the one I run), we were long Gold, Copper, RBOB, Bitcoin, and short Silver, bringing us back above the High watermark for the year.
Equities are always on everyone’s mind, as it touches nearly every part of the economy.
So, let’s see how things are looking in this correction.
The S&P 500 (top chart) has reacted up nicely off of the 10-week SMA bounce for the NYSE Advancing Issues $ADV (the bottom chart). These low levels in the $ADV have given major bottom signals historically.
We’ve been looking for this since I wrote (and filmed) a video about it two weeks ago.
The bottoming action in Equity Indices is what we expect to happen when we get our longer-term bottoming signal on $ADV.
Historically, March and April have been strong months for the S&P 500 ($SPX) going back to 1971.
And going back to 1999 (since Dot Com Bubble).
Since 2008 (Global Financial Crisis).
Since the 2018 meltdown.
Since Covid (2020).
Keep in mind that in 2018 and 2020, we had the COVID crash in March 2020 and the Ukraine Invasion in 2022, which would explain the weaker performance recently. That being said, it is a stronger period for equities seasonally if historical analogs are useful.
And as luck would have it, we have a long setup in Equity Indices.
Not a result of this seasonality, but a purely systematic trade.
The Nasdaq is in the Neutral Market regime, which dictates only taking a Curvy mean reversion trade with clearly defined risk and stop loss and profit targets.
And that’s exactly what we’re doing.
You can watch the video of the Weekly Market Overview [HERE], where I cover all of this (every week) in further detail. It’s a nice companion to reading this, to start your weekend research.
Regimes Dashboard
Current Positions
Long $HG (Copper) – Trend
Long $BTCUSD (Bitcoin) – Trend
Long $RB (RBOB Gasoline) – Mean Reversion
Short $SI (Silver) – Mean Reversion
Setups for next week
Currencies-
Euro I’m looking for a Curvy mean reversion short.
Swiss Franc is also setting up for a Curvy short in the neutral regime.
Metals-
Gold re-entry on a new Swing Beast setup long signal after trail stopping out Friday.
Equities-
Nasdaq is setting up to pull me into a Curvy Mean reversion long as discussed above.
Crypto-
Currently long only Bitcoin, but much like the seasonality of equities, I’m expecting to see the crypto momentum system switch back on and come roaring back to life in some of the altcoins.
If you are interested in the strategies that I use.
And you can work with me on building out your trading business in the Trading Thunderdome
Until then, stay disciplined.
