A trade stops working at 10:02. The trader stops working against it at 11:42. What fills the hundred minutes in between?
The market received new information, adjusted, and moved on. It did so without ceremony. Price trades only in the present tense.
The mind does not. It stays behind to negotiate: with the entry that looked so clean, with theprofitthat was on the screen twenty minutes ago, with the outcome that was supposed to arrive by now. The chart updates itself. The story does not.
We file what happens next under emotion: emotions took over, discipline collapsed. But the trouble starts earlier, in what births the emotion: resistance.
Resistance to the fact that the setup changed. Resistance to open profits now gone. Resistance to closing the trade—because closing it would kill the possibility of it still becoming what we need it to. So long as the trade stays open, so does the possibility.
There is an exchange rate no ticker quotes: acceptance costs a few seconds of sharp discomfort, paid once; resistance offers to finance it, with interest.
Decline the planned loss and hold a larger one. Decline admitting conditions changed and spend the afternoon glued to every tick. Keep declining and one loss becomes a drawdown, the drawdown becomes pressure, and the pressure leans on every decision that follows.
Acceptance is not just taking the loss, but acknowledging that it stings. That you wanted this to work. That it didn’t. That the disappointment is real. And then facing the only question price ever asks: what is true now?
This is not an emotional skill. It is a decision skill: the decision to stop resisting what has already happened.
The market needed one tick to move on.
Your resistance financed the remaining hundred minutes.
Sugar High
Last week, we highlighted White Sugar futures attempting to hold the 50-DMA after an impulsive breakout from a three-month Symmetrical Triangle. Price rocketed toward the pattern’s 1x measured move target of 514.3 this week.
On Monday, our Macro Ops team debated the setup in Sugar No. 11 futures. The October contract met all criteria for my commodity playbook’s multi-point trendline break.
However, the breakout itself was not decisive, instead closing with long upper wicks both Tuesday and Wednesday. We waited for more clarity, only to watch buyers completely overwhelm sellers into the week’s end.
One of our Collective members recently shared his antidote to FOMO: LOMO—the Love of Moving On. Sugar No. 11. gives our team a wonderful opportunity to put this motto into practice.
In metals, Gold futures staged a trendline breakout that converged with a brief, six-week consolidation phase.
Platinum is attempting the same, but encountering overhead supply.
That said, see Sugar No. 11 for what can happen should these three reversal bars have their wick highs taken out next week.
And in equities, the S&P 500 Equal Weight is now a hair’s breadth from the 222.44 1x measured move target of its three-month Cup & Handle Continuation.
Forex in Focus
In the currency markets, the Euro / Franc successfully retested the three-and-a-half-month Head & Shoulders Continuation pattern that we noted in last week’s update. This successful retest drove price action upward, approaching the 1x measured move target sitting at 0.94281.
Through the right shoulder of a five-and-a-half-month Head & Shoulders Bottom pattern, the Pound / Aussie cross is closely tracking its 50-DMA.
Following a v-shaped move this past spring, the Euro / Canadian Dollar has developed a four-month Ascending Triangle.
And in currency futures, the Mexican Peso broke out from a six-month Cup & Handle Continuation pattern on the September contract.
Muddying the picture somewhat is the continuation chart, which has price revisiting highs from the start of the year.
We hold a risk-defined long position in the Macro Ops Portfolio.
The Pauses That Refresh
Recent issues have noted relative strength in financials, and the sector’s increased presence in my equity screens.
This week, the active watchlist section saw its two featured bottom reversals successfully break out and reclaim their 200-EMAs.
This week’s equity screen once again reveals a compelling blend of long and short setups, alongside continuations and reversals.
The following names in particular stood out to me:
Best wishes in your trading, and see you in the next issue.
