Spend enough time in markets and you learn that what you’re feeling is often what others are feeling too. There is no rising above the crowd. There is only noticing: I’m scared to buy, so others must be too. I’m slow to exit, so others must be too.
For the past few months, equities have been punishing—following a run that seared fast profits into recent memory. I’ve been hearing the same story from trader after trader: they keep round-tripping trades in this chop. Their entries are excellent and follow their rules, but when weakness appears, they can’t close.
When a trader won’t close a losing position, we say he’s unwilling to admit he was wrong. When a trader won’t take profits on a winning position, we call him greedy. What he’s actually unwilling to let go of is his open position’s potential.
I’m not watching this from a distance.
When I trade from imbalance, I breathe life into my open positions. My open positions become open possibilities. They feel alive. They carry the potential to become what my mind needs them to be.
This is the trade that will finally break the losing streak. This is the trade that will carry the equity curve into new high ground. This is the trade that will restore my confidence.
As long as the position remains open, the potential I’ve given it remains open too. To close the trade is to snuff out a possibility I want for myself. My gut drops, empty, knowing what should be done. My hands click away to another name, another market, burying the evidence.
As a younger trader, I believed mechanical rules and resting orders would force me to execute my plan in a cold, calculated way. Yet even today, over a decade in, I still hear the voices of my open positions and feel the aliveness they carry.
When I’m trading from balance, those voices arrive hollow and dissolve before they land.
When I’m trading from imbalance, their pleas can pierce my heart: “Please, don’t snuff me out.”
You hear them too. Is it the voice of the trade? Or the trader?
A quick note: As some of you know, the Macro Ops team recently joined an established asset management firm to manage capital utilizing the Macro Ops investment process—if you are a qualified purchaser (please see linked description) and are interested in learning more, please let us know.
We’re also relaunching Macro Ops soon with a new brand, website, and an interactive quantitative dashboard built on our models and proprietary historical datasets.
With these improvements, Collective pricing roughly doubles at the relaunch to preserve the size and quality of the room. This week’s enrollment is likely the last chance to lock in current pricing. If you’ve been on the fence, this is the week to find out if it’s a fit.
Unresolved Tension
The battle between equities and energy remained unresolved this past week. The Nasdaq’s December contract continued to hold its breakout from a 3.5-month head-and-shoulders continuation.
Brent, meanwhile, held the structure of its 5.5-month head-and-shoulders continuation on the continuous contract, inching back toward the neckline.
December WTI crude has formed a bull flag after breaking out of a 3.5-month head-and-shoulders continuation last month. The 1x measured move target is 98.75.
In ags, London cocoa futures are consolidating within a 3-month ascending channel.
Soybean futures have come back to retest the neckline of a 5.5-month head-and-shoulders continuation on the continuous chart.
December soybean oil continues to coil within a 4-month symmetrical triangle, having tested both upper and lower boundaries multiple times.
Last week, we noted the 336.875 level for recompletion of November feeder cattle’s 2.5-month head-and-shoulders reversal. Tuesday’s close confirmed recompletion, with Friday following through after another brief test of the neckline. The 1x measured move target sits at 361.275.
Forex in Focus
Australian dollar futures are bouncing off the neckline of a 6-month head-and-shoulders reversal.
British pound futures are coiling inside a 15-month symmetrical triangle on the weekly timeframe. Price is testing the lower boundary for the fourth time.
EUR/AUD is on the verge of breaking down from its 6.5-month descending triangle.
And the ETH/USD analogue to spring 2025 that we’ve been tracking for the last month continues to rhyme.
The Pauses That Refresh
Here are the equity names that caught my attention in this week’s screen:
Active watchlists, real-time positioning updates, and live portfolio tracking are reserved for members of The Collective, our premier service offering discussions on high-level theory and performance, differentiated research, and a global community of serious traders and investors dedicated to mastery. We’re building the next evolution of the Collective right now, arming every one of our operators with best-in-class tools, research, and infrastructure. As these features roll out, we’ll be raising the membership price. You can lock in the current rate by joining today. Enrollment is open until this Sunday at midnight.
