Long Bonds: A Safe Haven In Volatile Markets

  • Long dated US treasuries do well in times of market volatility and provide their best returns during bear markets.
  • US debt is viewed as a safe haven when markets are in turmoil and investors flood into them.
  • Recessions are deflationary and inflation expectations plummet. This increases the expected real return on bonds.
  • Lower growth and lower inflation lead to a lower federal funds rate. This rate is transmitted throughout the yield curve and results in lower yields across multiple durations.
  • A potential ease in selling pressure from China will also help propel bonds higher.

Markets kicked off 2016 with volatility in the equity indices and continued pain in commodities. Recent price action and economic indicators tell our team at Foundation Investing that there’s a high probability the cycle has turned. We are now in bear market territory with an increased probability of entering a recession towards the end of the year.

Smart investors don’t need to be alarmed though. There is as much opportunity in a bear market as there is in a bull, especially for those who are flexible and willing to go long or short. And even if you don’t like to plunge to the short-side, there are investments available that will not only keep your wealth safe, but also make you a handsome return when things start to get ugly.

One of these investments is 20+ year long US treasury bonds.

There are many ways to play this trade. You can buy the actual bond, bond futures, or just buy shares of TLT, the 20+ year long bond ETF. The individual investor is best off purchasing TLT because it’s the most accessible and easiest to execute. (Keep reading….)

 

 

Long Bonds: A Safe Haven In Volatile Markets

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.