Keep An Eye On Gold…

There are very few people who can develop the skills to get the edge, and far fewer still who can withstand the losses emotionally and still stick with the system. Probably only one in five hundred people have the necessary discipline to be successful. ~ Blair Hull

Good morning!  

In this week’s return of the Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the budding setup in gold, the path forward for bonds, discuss what net bearish conference board stock expectations mean for the S&P, and end with technical breakouts in two stocks with powerful fundamental drivers, plus more…

***click charts to enlarge*** 

  1. Precious metals need to be on your radar. Gold’s monthly chart is setting up for its next leg higher…


  1. The percentage of gold miners trading above their 200-day moving average fell below 10% a few weeks ago. Readings such as these tend to mark selling exhaustion which creates the conditions for longer-term bottoms.


  1. Net small speculator positioning in gold is also around levels that tend to coincide with longer-term bottoms, especially when gold remains in a technical uptrend.


  1. Our commercial short-term oscillator recently swung back below its red line which is a bullish condition while seasonality remains highly supportive over the next few months.


  1. Our leading yield indicator and 10-year yields diverged quite a bit over the last few months. Yields have been starting to catch down over the last two weeks and there’s good reason to think this will continue.


  1. Sentiment remains overly bearish on bonds, suggesting there’s probably a good bit of offsided positioning to fuel a move lower in yields.


  1. TLT short interest tells a similar story…


  1. The SPX is in a Buy Climax and our Trend Fragility indicator is in the 99th percentile of its 3-year range. The thing about buy climaxes is that they tend to last longer than most think. SPX has now put in 5 consecutive weekly bull bars. This is the 30th time in its history that its seen this type of momentum. Strong momentum like this positively skews the follow-on 10-week returns.


  1. One interesting thing to note is that consumers have turned bearish on the outlook for stocks for the first time since July of last year.


  1. SentimenTrader pointed out last week that “some of the most significant monthly rebounds have occurred when consumers had been negative on stocks, so the S&P 500’s annualized return when there are more bears than bulls is almost double what it is when bulls are in the majority.”


  1. The Florida real estate company JOE is breaking out from an extended range. This stock has a confluence of powerful tailwinds. We’re long and will be adding to our position this week.


  1. Another holding of ours Wheels Up (UP) is making a move out from its base. This company is positioning itself to be the Uber of flying private. It’s run by a talented and experienced leadership team that has plenty of skin in the game. There’s a lot to like about UP as long as the team keeps executing on their vision.


Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there and keep your head on a swivel.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.