Why You Should Be Focused On India & Commodities

In this video we talk about why India (INDA) and commodities in general are the next huge investment trend. To understand why, we need to understand the S-curve. Macro Ops has a detailed article on this topic that I’ll link to in the comments. Be sure to check it out!

As people’s wealth increases, they buy more nonessential goods. As they do so, they consume a lot more commodities, including oil, gas, wheat, copper, and livestock. The growth in commodity consumption is exponential at this point.

We can actually predict when this will happen by tracking the GDP per capita of a country. Once the country hits a certain level, which is around $2,300 to $3,300 GDP per capita, their commodity consumption takes off. This happens in energy, but also in agriculture, where populations begin to increase their meat consumption. Raising livestock is over seven times more grain-intensive than producing for a simple plant based diet. That’s why we also see agriculture explode as well.

We’ve already seen this S-curve phenomenon happen in China (FXI). The last secular bull market in commodities which started in the early 2000’s and ended in 2011, occurred as China hit the S-curve take off point. If you bought the commodity index in 2000, right as the tech bubble was bursting, you would have compounded your money at over 20% annually over the following decade.

India is about to hit that point. Their GDP is exactly where China’s was in 2001, right before the last commodity bull market began. The country also has a population of over 1.3 billion people, just 60 million shy of China’s. Because of this, we think we’re about to enter the largest period of commodity demand growth the global economy has ever experienced.

Watch the video above for more!

And as always, stay Fallible out there investors!

 

 

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.