Value Hive: 3 Big Things with Peter Mantas

“What we’re seeing in biotech is the equivalent of negative oil prices.”  Last week we introduced a new mini-essay series called “Value Hive: 3 Big Things” where we dissected my conversation with Matthew Sweeney (Laughing Water Capital). Read it here if you missed it.  3 Big Things distills all my podcast episodes into bite-sized mini-essays. […]


“My North Star is every event in the world affects some security and I try to imagine the world as it is today and then try and see if there’s some kind of seismic change going on and how the world might look in 18 months. And if it does look that way, what are […]

Value Hive: 3 Big Things with Matt Sweeney

Good morning and Happy Wednesday!  This week I’m trying a new content format called “3 Big Things,” or “3BT”.  3 Big Things distills all my podcast episodes into bite-sized mini-essays. Each piece features the following:  One Conversation (Stocks, Psychology, Markets) One Framework (Mental Model, Analytical, Behavioral)  One Idea (Long or Short) We’ve got 130+ episodes […]

What Do We Want? Capitulation… [DIRTY DOZEN]

“Replicating the post-1990 Chinese experience in those countries would amount to a 15-fold increase of steel output, a more than 10-fold boost for cement production, a more than doubling of ammonia synthesis, and a more than 30-fold increase of plastic syntheses.” ~ Vaclav Smil “How The World Really Works” via this book review by Tom […]

Rent-A-Center (RCII): A Cheap LTO Retailer w/ 30% IRR Potential

Rent-A-Center (RCII) is a Lease-To-Own (LTO) operator with ~1,900 locations between the US, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. They also own Acima, a leading virtual LTO operator. As the name suggests, RCII leases items like furniture, appliances, electronics, computers, smartphones, and more to customers with plans starting as low as $10. The stock’s down over 40% […]

Did The Dumb Money Turn Smart? [DIRTY DOZEN]

“You must learn to allow patience and stillness to take over from anxiety and frantic activity… The good player is patient. He is observant, controlling his patience, and organizing his composure. When he sees an opportunity, he explodes.” ~ Jim Lau Good morning! In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK]  I again discuss why stocks […]

Quality of Earnings: A Book Review

Quality of earnings matters. As such, it’s critical to know what makes certain earnings “high” quality and others poor.  There’s arguably no better book on this topic than Thornton L. O’Glove’s Quality of Earnings. Penned in 1987, O’Glove offers evergreen principles on earnings quality through a combination of accounting, business analysis, and common sense.  I’ll […]

The Storm Before The Calm… [DIRTY DOZEN]

“There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street […]

MIPS AB (MIPS): Supplying The Ingredients For Safer Helmets

My wife’s brother almost died last October because he wasn’t wearing a helmet.  He suffered severe brain bleeding and eye nerve damage.  For months the only thing he could do was lie in bed alone. No sounds or external stimuli. He couldn’t read a book or listen to music.  Just watching him made me depressed.  […]

Using MO’s Heads Up Display (HUD) To Bag A 6R Profit

Steve here.  You wouldn’t wear a coat in the dead of summer, would you? The same goes for trading.  Why would you go long in a market dominated by a bearish trend?   Our Heads Up Display (or HUD) has several tools that allow operators to examine the market from a regime-based perspective.  Our tools use […]