I will either find a way, or make one ~ Hannibal

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Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at some underlying technicals, discuss the equity/yield relationship, look at private investor flows, review the bullish action out of Mexico, and end with some charts on Japan. Let’s dive in…

***click charts to enlarge***

1. The SPX remains in a buy climax. It is now trading above bull channels on multiple time-frames. This type of price action typically leads to some profit-taking in the follow-on weeks. The percent of SPX stocks trading above an RSI of 70 is now 37%, the third-highest reading in 3-years. The current bullish advance is stretched but buy climaxes tend to last longer than most expect.

2. The strength of a bullish trend is determined by the participation in that trend. Last week we saw the highest percentage of stocks making new 52w highs since January 18′. Now, breadth like this is a tricky thing because over the long-term it’s a good sign of underlying strength. But extreme readings can also sometimes portend overdone conditions in the short-term which precede minor pullbacks.

3. This is the most important chart to watch right now, in my opinion. It’s the SPX and the 10-year yield. Low yields have been an incredible tailwind for US equities, unlike in 2018 when yields rose hand-in-hand with the SPX. Bonds have been in a compressed regime (low vol). Compression leads to expansion (trends). I am directionally agnostic on which way yields will break but keep a close eye on them because where they go next will likely determine where the SPX, gold, and dollar all trade.

4.  Speaking of the dollar (DXY). It’s forming an interesting chart pattern. An argument can be made that the December breakout from its 2-year bull channel was a bear trap. If so,  we’d expect higher prices from here.

5. Like bonds, I’m mostly agnostic on the direction of the dollar and major dollar pairs at the moment — except for a few idiosyncratic plays such as MXNUSD. But considering how compressed FX vol is, especially in the euro, there’s a real chance we see fireworks in the FX market this year.

6. This chart from Credit Suisse shows the follow-on moves in EURUSD after its 12-month volatility fell to similar levels.

7. The “January Effect” is a statistically significant phenomenon in the FX market. It’s a recurring pattern where EURUSD often makes its major high or low point for the year in the month of January. Peter Brandt has written a good overview of it here. This pattern also holds true for the equity market as BofAML explains below.

8. In addition to the fact that yields have stayed pinned down during this equity rally, another significant difference between today and January 18′ is the lack of private investor / retail participation. You can see this in the data, such as BofA’s GWIM equity flows as well as TD Ameritrade’s IMX. This is important because major tops tend to occur only once retail has gone all-in.

9. Mexico (EWW) continues to be one of my favorite long-term plays. The MSCI Mexico ETF broke out to new 52-week highs last week.

10. There’s a lot of great looking charts there. This one of CEMEX (CX), a US-listed Mexican ADR, is a beaut. The stock is breaking out of a base at decade lows following a long multi-year downtrend and it’s trading on the cheap.

11.  Corporates have been a huge driver of this bull market with US companies buying back over a quarter of the entire market cap since 09′. This financial engineering is a big reason why the US market has outperformed the rest-of-the-world by so much. But now some other players are getting in on the buyback game. The chart below shows that Japan is stepping up its buybacks in a major way. I’m very bullish on Japanese equities for this very reason, as well as a few others (chart via Credit Suisse).

12.  And then, of course, we have the BoJ which is buying Japanese ETFs at a pace of nearly 1% of the total market cap a year (chart via Credit Suisse).

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Alex Barrow

Co-Founder of Macro Ops. Alex is a former US Government Counterintelligence Professional, U.S. Army  Interrogator, and USMC Scout Sniper.  He’s an independent trader with over 10-years in markets. 

Since the mid-1980s, my mantra for this process is ‘strong opinions, weakly held.’ Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the ‘strong opinion’ part. Then — and this is the ‘weakly held’ part — prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt.

…Eventually, your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. You will be surprised by how quickly the sequence of faulty forecasts will deliver you to a useful result. ~ Paul Saffo 

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Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at numerous signs of glaring complacency, over positioning, and excessively silly bullish sentiment in the market. Let’s dive in…

***click charts to enlarge***

1. The SPX briefly sold off last week on Iran war hysteria only to rebound perfectly off of the lower line of its 14-week micro bull channel, putting in a new weekly all-time closing high. Its next test will be the 3,300 level and should it fail and break below the bull channel we should expect a sell-off at least down to its next major area of support which is in the 3,100ish range.

As I’ll show, sentiment and positioning are at extreme levels. This makes the market susceptible to a sizable correction (5%+) in the near future. But, breadth and technicals are still mostly intact and momentum is on the market’s side for higher prices. I suspect we could see a final buy climax following the signing of the US-China phase 1 trade deal this week. Takeaway: Now’s not the time to be chasing higher. Start hedging downside risk but wait for the market to confirm bull move is over before attempting to short. And don’t overreact, this selloff should set up some excellent buying opportunities.

2. SentimenTrader tweeted out the following message and chart “Last week, y’all bought to open 21.6 million speculative call options. That’s the most *ever*. Your previous record was 19.7 million during the week of Jan 26, 2018. Your total bullish / bearish volume was the most since March 2000. So…wow.”

3. Over the last two weeks, I’ve been writing about the incredibly stretched levels in put/call ratios. This last week @MacroCharts shared the following in a blog post noting the same “Above, the 50-day Put/Call Ratio (inverted) has dropped to 0.56, among the most extreme overbought readings in 20 years. Remember this is the same indicator I discussed in November – when people were pointing to a 1-day overbought Put/Call reading and saying markets were euphoric. They weren’t. But now they certainly look that way.” Link to the post.

4. The CTA’s are going all in… Read the following from Nomura, “It appears to us that the foremost concern in speculators’ minds right now is not the short-term risk of herding, but rather the risk of their managed funds underperforming the benchmark indices… we estimate that trend-chasing CTAs are adding to their aggregate net long position in S&P 500 futures at a furious pace. We think that this sprint to chase the market’s upward momentum is giving rise to a systematic market melt-up. We estimate that a hefty 47% of CTAs’ long positions in S&P 500 futures were acquired in the brief time since the beginning of December, and therefore break even (on average) at an S&P 500 reading of about 3,245, which is considerably higher than the average entry point for positions acquired earlier on.”

5. This chart from Deutsche Bank shows that total equity positioning is “at the top of its historical range and in the 96th percentile”.

6. Even Risk Parity funds have gone all-in on the equity ramp up. RP beta to the SPX is at its second-highest level this cycle, with only Jan 18’ exceeding it (chart from DB).

7. Nomura’s global equity sentiment index is roughly 1.5 SD’s above its 1-year rolling average.

8. Another interesting development is the widening spread between the SPX’s implied and realized volatility. This means traders are starting to bet on a pop in vol. The white circles note the prior three times the gap between implied and realized volatility reached these levels.

9. This seasonality chart from Nomura shows that we’re entering a historically weak period for stock market returns over the next two weeks.

10. I don’t know about you but this makes bonds — which have been holding up surprisingly well, considering — a good looking trade here. It also happens to be that CTA’s have near-zero exposure to them and positioning is extremely short (charts via DB).

11. This is a cool chart from BofAML showing the number of months that a stock has made it with a market cap exceeding 4% of the S&P 500. MSFT is currently at 8 months and AAPL at 3. Another thing to point out (there wasn’t enough space in this week’s Dozen to do so) is that there’s a number of stocks trading completely above their upper monthly Bollinger Bands. Not only is this usual but it tends to not last very long, often marking intermediate buy climaxes. AAPL and the semi index (SOX) are two current examples.

12. Now, THIS is a great chart from BofAML. Real assets are trading at ALL-TIME LOWS vs financial assets. Do you think this trend will persist or are we nearing the turn?
    

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Alex Barrow

Co-Founder of Macro Ops. Alex is a former US Government Counterintelligence Professional, U.S. Army  Interrogator, and USMC Scout Sniper.  He’s an independent trader with over 10-years in markets. 

Before I get to my three picks I want to remind all fellow Collective members that our 2020 Stock Picking Competition officially kicks off next Monday. The deadline to get your three picks in is by end of day Friday. If you want to play just shoot me an email at alex@macro-ops.com or post your picks to the Comm Center and tag me and I’ll throw them on the board.

The only rules are that the picks have to be stocks (no futures, options, FX). ETFs are allowed as long as they aren’t levered. That’s it. There are no liquidity or country requirements. And the rules of the game are simple: the Operator who’s basket of three stocks (all equally weighted) sees the highest return from Jan 13th through the close of December 31st, 2020, will win.

We haven’t figured out what the prize will be yet but we’ll come up with something good. Maybe some MO swag and an expensive bottle of scotch, not to mention all the bragging rights.

That’s it… Looking forward to seeing your picks!

Now it’s time for me to share my three dark horses. Let me give you fair warning. Two, if not all three of my picks will probably make you dry heave once you see the companies that I’m backing.

I’m fine with that. In fact, that’s the kind of response I’m going for.

Here’s the criteria I used for my selection.

1. The stocks had to be companies that I’m not already holding for no other reason than I just wanted to make this game a bit more fun. And with the hope that I’d find some new interesting plays (which I think I accomplished).
2. I wanted picks with crazy asymmetry. Stocks that have the potential to at least double if not 3x or more within 12-months time. I’m playing for keeps here. Either I’m winning this thing or taking a distant last place and eating large helpings of humble pie.
3. To accomplish the above I needed to find stocks that were either totally and utterly hated or completely and absolutely forgotten, dismissed and disregarded. Preferably, they would have a low float (small supply = higher potential for sharp runs) and a reasonable catalyst for positive change on the near horizon. If they had a really large technical base from which to launch from, even better.

I sifted through hundreds of stocks. My initial list after my first pass through using technicals and a few key fundamental criteria gave me a stack of about 45 tickers. I then dug through the fundamentals for each one of these and was able to kick out the total garbage companies leaving me a solid group of eight stocks.

From this list, I read through transcripts and assigned ratings for technicals and fundies and most importantly, gave a grade to the company’s positive skewness — remember, this isn’t about picking the stock most probable to have a good year but rather about finding three stocks that have the most potential to have an insanely good year (ie, massive convexity).

With that said, I think I accomplished my aims. Now, whether or not they’ll perform or break their legs right out of the gate is to be seen. Either way, I’m excited about the picks. And with that, let’s dive in…

Leju Holdings (LEJU)

If you were to ask someone what was one of the riskiest areas in the global market, they’d very well may say “the Chinese property market”, and rightfully so. Legendary short-seller, Jim Chanos, calls it “the MOST important asset in the world” and not because he thinks it’s a great value.

So, why then did I pick Leju Holdings; a US-listed Chinese ADR that calls itself the leading “online-to-offline (O2O) real estate services provider in China”? Well, I told you I wanted downright disgusting stocks, didn’t I? But, like many things in life, sometimes you have to peer beneath the surface to find that there’s more than what initially meets the eye.

Here’s what I like about LEJU. And why I think it could easily be a 5x’r or more if, of course, it doesn’t end up being a total fraud — I mean, you never really know with these Chinese ADRs.

First off, the chart.

The stock has spent most of its time in a perpetual downtrend since it listed in 2014 after hitting an initial high of $18 a share. At one point, the stock was down over 94% from its all-time highs. For the last three years though it’s been trading in a tight consolidation range.

This is an excellent base… The stock has done nothing for three years. Those who are still sitting in this thing are likely strong hands if they’re willing to hang on through years of… nothing.

(click images to enlarge)

What exactly does LEJU do?

You can think of LEJU as a Chinese version of Zillow (ZW). In fact, the two have partnered together (link here). The company has a market cap of $330m, a small float, holds hardly any debt, carries roughly half its market cap in cash, is expected to do $670m in revenues this year which makes for top-line growth of 45% — nearly doubling last years growth rate of 27%. It has positive earnings growing at over 40% YoY, and is trading for approximately half times sales.

CEO Yinyu He, says the slowdown in the property market over the last two years has in-fact been beneficial to their business because instead of developers/owners holding onto units in hopes of price appreciation they’re being forced to move inventory which makes for greater demand for LEJU’s services.

This stock has smooth sailing until $3.50 where it’ll hit some technical resistance. I think it punches straight through that roof and goes to $5+.

Centrus Energy Corp (LEU)

LEU is a US-based supplier of nuclear fuel and services to the nuclear power industry, both in the US and internationally.

The company has a $62m market cap, only 9m shares outstanding with just 4.5m floated (high insider ownership). Management expects to finish out FY2019 with total revenues in the range of $205-230m putting the midrange estimate at low double-digit growth YoY — marking the company’s first year of positive top-line growth in seven years.

The chart makes my mouth water…

The stock is down over 99% from its all-time highs hit way back in 07′. It’s been trading sideways for roughly 6-years and is just now making an attempt to break out of this range and doing so with strong volume.

Management expects to return to profitability this year — they just put in their first profitable quarter in a loooong time.

They recently lowered their LT debt from $247m to $74.3m (a reduction of more than 70%) and extended the remaining maturity all the way out to 2027.

Lastly, LEU recently signed a contract with the DOE to demonstrate the production of high-assay low-enriched uranium or HALEU. If successful, this would mark the first-ever commercial production of this advanced nuclear fuel which one day could be used in advanced next-gen nuclear reactors.

Dan Poneman, LEU’s chief executive, was deputy of the DEO from 09’-14’, so he’s well connected to get these types of deals done.

I’m uber-bullish on uranium’s long-term prospects. Governments are starting to go raving mad for “green” energy. And there’s no feasible future where we lower our carbon footprint without nuclear making up a LARGE part of our baseload energy supply.

Oh… and here’s a screenshot of the Q&A from their last call. Not a single analyst following this one… Totally under the radar.

Deutsche Bank (DB)

No 2020 contrarian stock list would be complete without the perma-bears absolutely favorite whipping boy, Deutsche Bank.

Somehow this company seems to find a way to be at the bottom of every money-laundering and trading scandal in town. Plus, their business has pretty much been stuck in the dumps ever since the GFC.

So why am I adding DB to my stock trio?

Two reasons… (1) DB has fallen over 90% from its 07’ highs. This stock has already passed through the five stages of investor grief and is now totally written off. I think the market has WAY overdone it and think DB is set for a massive rerating (2) all European banks have been in the pooper, largely due to Europe’s anemic economy and… this is is important… the ECB’s negative interest rate policy. One of my big macro thematics this year is that we see further rate convergence between the US and DM/European countries (meaning, US rates will hold steady to lower while other DM rates converge up). This trend is going to rocket boost European banks.

This chart shows that US banks are trading at ALL-TIME highs relative to their European counterparts (yellow line).

Fiscal policy is coming to the EU in the near future. This will not only boost domestic growth but also raise rates and steepen the curve — which is good for a bank’s net interest margin (NIM). Also, I think at some point this year Christine Lagarde looks at Sweden, who just ended their 5-year experiment with the mind-numbingly stupid experiment that has been negative rates, and sees that their economy is doing fine, in fact, better without NIRP and soon follows in their footsteps.

DB’s chart looks great. The stock just broke out of a 6-month bottoming wedge and has clear skies to $15.

DB’s new CEO, Christian Sewing, is doing and saying all the right things and the company is making good progress on their long-term “plan of transformation”.

I think all the bad news and then some is baked into this sauerbraten. It’s time for this turd to shine.

So there you have it. These are my three stocks to ride for the year. If you like ’em, have questions, or think I’ve completely lost my noodles,  just respond and tell me so. I love hearing your feedback. Also, shoot me your picks. I’m excited to see what stocks y’all are amped about.

Oh… and I’ve also added these picks to my book. I’m putting my money where my mouth is. Details for the trades that I executed this morning are below.

Symbol: LEJU Holdings (LEJU)
Size: 100 bps
Entry: $2.40
Risk Point: $2.00
Target: $6+

Symbol: Centrus Energy Corp (LEU)
Size: 100 bps
Entry: $6.69
Risk Point: $4.81
Target: $14+

Symbol: Deutsche Bank (DB)
Size: 100 bps
Entry: $8.45
Risk Point: $7.55
Target: $15+

Your Macro Operator,

Alex

Alex Barrow

Co-Founder of Macro Ops. Alex is a former US Government Counterintelligence Professional, U.S. Army  Interrogator, and USMC Scout Sniper.  He’s an independent trader with over 10-years in markets. 

For eighteen years I followed the sea, took what it offered. It has brought me shipwreck and success, sorrow, danger, and unutterable happiness. ~ Henry de Monfreid

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Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the total returns ytd for the major asset classes, then we discuss why stocks performed as well as they did, followed by further talk on stretched sentiment, note some strange action in fund flows, and point out a few good looking chart setups in the gold mining and E&P space. Let’s dive in…

1. Only two more days left in the trading year. Here’s the report card on the total returns per asset class via BofAML. What a difference a year makes… In 18’ cash was the top performer at 1.8% while every other asset outside of US Treasuries was down on the year. This year, everything was positive with stocks turning in a blockbuster performance with the SPX returning over 30%.

2. What’s interesting though is that cash — the lowest returning asset this year — happened to be the asset class that investors loved most. Over half-a-trillion dollars flowed into cash this year while investors sold over $160bn net of equities (chart via BofAML).

3. Why did stocks perform so well this year? Well, investors were expecting the GFC Redux and positioned accordingly but economic armageddon never came. This chart from State Street shows how fund manager’s confidence in equities hit an all-time low in Dec 18’ (over 2 SDs below its 3yr rolling average).

4. This yearly chart of the SPX going back to 1970 shows the market is about to close on the high for the year, as well as the decade. Newton’s First Law reigns in markets and momentum tends to beget further momentum. This bodes well for next year as the S&P averages an annual return of 11.2% following a year in which it returns over 20% (according to MW).

5. But more short and intermediate terms of sentiment and positioning suggest we’re likely to see some profit-taking (read: volatility) in the near-term. NDR’s Daily Trading Sentiment Composite shows excessive optimism (chart via @WillieDelwiche).

6. And Sentiment Trader’s “Core Indicators” are also showing widespread FOMO with 55% of them reading extreme optimism which is the highest level in 15-years.

7. In addition, January and February tend to be some of the weakest seasonal periods for stocks in the year (chart via Equity Clock).

8. This great chart from @allstarcharts shows the Europe 600 Index is breaking out to all-time highs, past a resistance level that has rejected it four other times over the last 20+ years. This is important for a number of reasons (1) it’s very bullish for global equities and European equities, obviously and (2) FX markets are driven by speculative flows. Spec flows chase expected total returns. An outperforming European market would be bullish the euro and thus bearish the US dollar (euro makes up roughly 60% trade-weighted dollar basket) (h/t @TihoBrkan).

9. Most of the charts in the oil and gas space still look like flaming turds. But… there’s a few that have recently broken out of nice technical setups. One of them is GPRK which I recently mentioned here. Another one is Vaalco Energy (EGY). It has zero debt, positive FCF, good assets, strong management, and is selling for dirt-cheap. Chart below is a weekly.

10. I’ve been expecting more of a pullback in gold and think we may still get one — though I’m bullish longer-term on the yellow metal. With that said, there are too many good looking charts in the miner space to ignore. This weekly chart of Harmony Gold (HMY) is a beaut…

11. This caught my eye. According to BofAML US equity funds and ETFs saw their largest weekly outflow of the year last week while investors piled into fixed income. I’m not sure how to square this with the sentiment data but it’s definitely strange.

12. Investors have been moving back into Emerging Markets with 9 out of the last 10 weeks seeing positive inflows into dedicated EM funds. This is a stark change from earlier in the year when investors were selling their EM holdings at a quick clip. This chart from MS shows GEM Fund Managers’ current weighting relative to the MSCI EM index. Malaysia, China, and Taiwan are some of the most underweighted countries which happen to be the charts I’m most bullish on going into 2020. Check out the Malaysia (EWM) chart, it recently broke out of the descending wedge I’ve been pointing out over the last couple of months.

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Alex Barrow

Co-Founder of Macro Ops. Alex is a former US Government Counterintelligence Professional, U.S. Army  Interrogator, and USMC Scout Sniper.  He’s an independent trader with over 10-years in markets. 

You’d be surprised when you’re put right on the ball and you’ve got to do something and everybody’s looking at you going, OK, what’s going to happen? You put yourself there on the firing line — give me a blindfold and a last cigarette and let’s go. And you’d be surprised by how much comes out of you before you die.  ~ Keith Richards

Good morning!

In this week’s Dirty Dozen [CHART PACK] we look at the technical picture for the SPX, go through some stats that show this bull is gonna keep running, talk about the latest data that suggests the global economy has troughed, and finish with some single stock setups we’re looking at. Let’s dive in…

1. The following chart and text are from Al Brooks. “The monthly S&P500 Emini futures chart finally broke above the top of its 13-year bull channel on Thursday. The breakout is small so far, but there are many days left to the month.

I had been saying for a couple months that the breakout was likely. But I also have been saying that there is only a 25% chance of a successful breakout above the top of a bull channel. By that, I mean an acceleration up into a stronger bull trend. The most dramatic example was the monthly chart in 1995. That breakout above a bull channel led to a huge bull trend.

In 75% of cases, there is a reversal down back into the channel within about 5 bars. An example of a reversal from a failed bull breakout above a bull channel happened in January 2018 on the weekly chart. The Emini eventually sold off 20% and went sideways for almost 2 years.

Five bars on the monthly chart is almost half a year. Therefore, the Emini could continue up for several more months before reversing down.”

2. After nearly 2-years of trading sideways, the NYSE took out Jan 18’s highs. @RyanDetrick points out that the market’s future returns after hitting new all-time highs following a year or more of sideways action tend to be pretty good, writing “Since 1980, higher 6 months later 7 of 8 and higher 12 months later every time.” The path of least resistance is still clearly up for equities…

3. This chart from NDR via RW Bairds “2020 Economic & Stock Market Outlook” shows that 67% of stock markets around the globe are trading above their 200-day moving averages. The strongest bull markets are driven by widespread participation (h/t @TN).

4. I wrote a bit about the developing bull case for Japanese equities back in September (link here). Veteran chart technician, Peter Brandt, seems to agree. This chart of his shows the Nikkei 225 with quarterly candles. The market is attempting to break out of a 30-year range.

5. A big reason for the bullish global technical backdrop is that the world didn’t end like most were predicting at the start of the year. While people were screaming about an impending recession we were pointing out how the data wasn’t that bad, and in fact, was indicating that the worst was behind us. One of these charts was the OECD Global CLI. Well, it just turned up for the first time since early 2018 (top orange line).

6. This graph from Sentiment Trader shows the S&P’s returns after the OECD CLI turns up for the first time in over 1.5 years. STRONG ACROSS THE BOARD. Man, it’s gotta be rough being a perma-bear in this environment…

7. Oh… and the Global PMI is also inflecting higher.

8. In light of this positive backdrop here are a few stocks I’m looking at with nice setups. Here’s the dating tech company Match (MTCH). It’s spent the last year trading down to its 200-day moving average (blue line) where itssince found support.

9. Chinese coffee retailer Luckin Coffee (LK) is forming a nice bull flag after exploding out of its post listing range. The company has triple-digit revenue growth, the CEO and Chairman own roughly 40% of the company, and there’s an extremely high short float (read: lost of fuel for a rip higher).

10. Shipper Euronav (EURN) is also bull flagging after a strong impulse move out of its base (chart is a weekly).

11. Clarksons lays out the DEEP value case for EURN below (h/t @joeriwestland).

12. This great chart from @MacroCharts shows what 2020 could bring for EM. To get there though we need to see the dollar break. And while it’s been trading weak as of late, it’s still holding above key technical levels which means odds still favor up/sideways action for now.

Alex Barrow

Co-Founder of Macro Ops. Alex is a former US Government Counterintelligence Professional, U.S. Army  Interrogator, and USMC Scout Sniper.  He’s an independent trader with over 10-years in markets.