Macro Ops Podcast: Macro Musings Audio Version – China, EURUSD, Quants, Hardcore History, Breathing

Today’s episode is an audio expansion on the weekly Macro Musings email. Click here to see the written version.

Apple Podcasts

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Anchor.fm

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Overcast

Radio Public

Stitcher

This is a solo episode, with me Chris, expanding on an article from Brian MacKenzie (link here) about the importance of nasal breathing.

Other topics discussed:

  • China and their ownership of the US Film industry and the lack of any anti-Chinese sentiment in US Films.
  • Ken Griffin’s, Founder of Citadel Capital, recent $238 million penthouse purchase in NYC and the book The Quants.
  • $3 billion dollar inflows into Vanguard Total International Bond ETF is a short bet on USD, one of the most crowded trades currently, not just in macro but across the board.
  • Dan Carlin’s amazing Hardcore History podcast, Blueprint for Armageddon an epic tale of the Somme in World War I.
  • My EURUSD trade setup and how I approach Macro Trading as a systematic quant.
  • And finally an interpretation of a quote from the ever belligerent Charlie Munger.

Follow me @chrisdmacro on Twitter and Instagram

Macro-Ops Podcast: Trading Strategies, Curve Fitting and Over Optimization

Chris and Tyler talk about curve fitting and over optimization of trading strategies.

This episode is a lot shorter than normal, we touch on a single subject vs covering a wide variety of subjects. If you like these short and pointed episodes and want more, let us know! If you prefer long form drop us a line. Tell us what YOU want!

Apple Podcasts

Google Podcasts

Spotify

Stitcher

Overcast

Breaker

Anchor.fm

RadioPublic

Pocket Casts

If you want to play this in a different podcast app, this is the RSS Feed https://anchor.fm/s/870c5d0/podcast/rss

In this episode Chris starts off talking about what he looks for in a trading strategy:

  • Predictability – the ability to predict a trade is forthcoming, not predicting the results.  
  • Repeatable – does this setup repeat over time?
  • Definable – can you clearly define the parameters?

Tyler and Chris then go on to discuss the following:

What does over fitting look like in trading systems?

Why seeking high win rate systems leads us down the path of over fitting.

“Finding” setups in random walk price data. How our brains are easily fooled by randomness.

Testing logic on in-sample and out-of-sample data (training and test data sets). A model that works well on both sets is best.

Why resilience is our true goal for a trading system. If it isn’t fragile, it has more potential to last over time.

How to deal with black swan risk. (Risk that doesn’t show up in any past data sets.)

Why robust systems are uncomfortable to sit through.

Why building a system that fits your temperament is the key to having success.

Finally we hit on why we all need to practice the basics of a system over and over. Get those reps in!

You can reach Tyler at @tylerhkling on Twitter and tyler@macro-ops.com

You can reach Chris at @chrisdmacro on Twitter and chris@macro-ops.com

Macro Ops Podcast: Macro Ops Monthly Intelligence Report, Dollar, Tesla and Birds with Alex Barrow

Chris sits down and chats with Macro-Ops Co-Founder Alex Barrow.

This one goes deep! If you are looking for an abridged version of the Monthly Intelligence Report, this isn’t it. If you want to download Alex’s views on the markets into your brain operating group, this is the episode for you.

The Monthly Intelligence Report is a paid monthly product you can learn much more about here.

Apple Podcasts

Google Podcasts

Spotify

Anchor.fm

Overcast

Stitcher

Pocket Casts

Breaker

We spend over two hours talking about:

Adam Robinson’s interview on the Knowledge Project Podcast, part 1 and part 2.

We cover the copper to gold ratio and how the credit market leads equities.

Tesla shorts.

Why everyone is bearish the dollar? How do we play that?

Gold leading the dollar, platinum leading gold and what price levels are important there.

Global recession outside of the US.

Chris’s labored retail store as trading analogy, losses are operating costs.

Building better systems, better mental models and stepping away.

Alex’s history as a sniper in the United States Marine Corps, and how that transfers over directly to trading.

Alex’s thoughts on managing his book, risk exposure, mistakes and waiting for the things that are obvious to find high expectancy positions. He talks about capitalizing on the one to two big macro opportunities in a given year. 

The C-O-N-spiracy brokers have about getting successful people to think trading is easy and they should open accounts only to find the WORST User Interface/User Experience (UI/UX) platforms to trade on.

Alex touches on his new micro idea, ROAD (Construction Partners) on an IPO from 2018.

Alex comments on how US Equity Household allocation is near all time highs.

And finally a short convo about birds!

Enjoy.

Macro Ops Podcast: Volatility, Smart Beta, Ancient Chinese Philosophy and Poker with Tyler

We are starting a new podcast!!! (yes, you get three of those exclamation points … != !!!)

The Macro Ops Podcast will focus on global macro trading. But we reach further than just finance, learning from people in all walks of life in order to bring that mindset, those skills, that thinking into making ourselves better all around.

For our inaugural episode Chris (I) chats with Macro Ops Co-Founder Tyler Kling.

You can find the episode on all major platforms at the links below. 

Itunes

Google Podcasts Android Only

Breaker

Stitcher

Spotify

In Volatility, Smart Beta, Ancient Chinese Philosophy and Poker we discuss how Tyler got into the finance world right out of school at a family office, then moving on to trading for himself.

Tyler is heavily focused on the volatility complex and talks about a call he put out on VXX and VIX near the December lows in the SPX and what that looks like now.

We touch on the indecision currently in the markets and Chris’s short trade setup and contingency plan on the S&P this week.  

From there we move on to discuss an article Tyler wrote about which included a Classical Chinese text from thousands of years ago, the Zhuangzi, and how it applies to traders today. Bleak stuff indeed!

Check out the article here: Play To Win Or Go Out Like Broomcorn’s Uncle.

After the article discussion we talk about optionality, harvesting smart beta with a macro overlay, and why we need to make sure trading is adequately compensating our time. 

Finally we finish up with a discussion about poker and how it relates to trading!

You can reach Tyler at @TylerHKling on Twitter or tyler@macro-ops.com.

And you can reach Chris at @chrisDMacro on Twitter and Instagram or chris@macro-ops.com.