The Global Macro Picture Is Ready To Explode With Alex Barrow

This episode I talk with Alex Barrow Co-Founder and Chief Macro Strategist of Macro Ops. We discuss the major moves that are shaping up in the global macro space.

Here are the links to all major platforms for your listening convenience. 

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In this episode we touch on the dollar, bonds, metals, inflation, inverted yield curve, China, $YTRA and equity indexes.

We also talk about how Alex stacks his fundamental macro views with technical indicators to give him a better timing advantage in markets.

This was a long one, I hope you enjoy it!

Links to subjects mentioned in this episode:

A Tactical Short In Bonds
A Golden Macro Opportunity
There’s A Big Macro Move Brewing In Markets
Yield Curve Inversion: Why This Time Is Different

​​​​​​​You might recall the podcast episode I did covering the impending Global Macro moves a few weeks ago, if you haven’t yet give it a listen here.
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You can find Alex on Twitter at @MacroOps or via email at alex@macro-ops.com
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As always you can find me, ChrisD on Twitter at @ChrisDMacro or email at chris@macro-ops.com

Tesla On The Brink, Eurodollars, and Uranium with Biren Shah Part 2

This is a follow up episode with Biren Shah @perseidcapital where we discuss Tesla’s flirtation with bankruptcy, the eurodollar system, and bullish uranium bets.

You can find more from Biren here https://perseid-capital.com.

Listen on any of these podcasting platforms

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In this episode, we go further down the $TSLAQ bear case and talk about why this quarter is make or break time for the troubled car maker. They’ve run out of ammo and Biren feels that unless they have a magic bullet somewhere, this quarter will be what all the Tesla bears have been waiting for.

From there we shift into the eurodollar system covering both the futures and the eurodollar banking system.

We finish with a look at the Uranium markets.

As always you can catch me at twitter.com/chrisdmacro or instagram.com/chrisdmacro or email me chris@macro-ops.com.

Global Macro and Value Investing Collide, With Mr. Bean

Today I introduce Macro Ops’ newest addition, “Mr. Bean”.

Mr. Bean is a value investor with over 13 years experience.

We start with a discussion on the shippers sector, a longer term theme we are following closely here at Macro Ops.

In addition to his work on value investing we cover lifestyle, health and wellness, longevity and many other topics.

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You can follow more of Mr. Beans thoughts at twitter.com/marketplunger1 or shoot him an email at mrbean@macro-ops.com.

As always you can catch me at twitter.com/chrisdmacro or instagram.com/chrisdmacro or email me chris@macro-ops.com.

Tesla Short Catalysts, Eurodollar Threats and Uranium with Biren Shah

This week I (Chris) speak with fellow Operator, Biren Shah who currently runs a family office.

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Biren is very bearish on Tesla, and in this show he breaks down his core reasons why. Biren has written a lot more on this subject on his blog which you can find here.

After Tesla we cover the Eurodollar market, and what he expects to see as equity markets start to turn over. It could be a lot worse than we thought.

Finally Biren is bullish on Uranium and covers his thoughts on the catalysts forthcoming.

Find Biren on Twitter here.

Find me on Twitter here.

Shippers – Bottom Fishing With Alex Barrow

Today I speak with Alex Barrow, founder of Macro Ops and our resident bird fan, or as he prefers ornithologist.

Anywhoooo- Alex has shippers on his mind. You can read more about his thoughts in his most recent research report here.

If you’ve listened to Alex and I speak before, you know that we tend to go a lot longer in our conversations. Not the case today, sorry!

This one is only about 40 minutes long. Trust me when I say, that is a quick one for us!

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If you aren’t already subscribed to our email list, head on over to Macro Ops to sign up.

We provide a ton of free research every few days. We make your inbox a happy place!

Also don’t forget to follow Alex on Twitter @MacroOps.

Brexit, Yellow Jackets, Venezuela and Global Threats with Ben Hockman

This week on the podcast Chris speaks with Ben Hockman. Ben is part of an incident response team for one of the largest financial institutions in the world. This team has a heavy focus on cybersecurity, intelligence, terrorism and physical security with active operations in Latin America, the Colombia/Venezuela border, Mexico and Europe. Additionally Ben is a British citizen who currently resides in France, so he has first hand concerns about the upcoming March 29th BREXIT deadline and what that might mean for him and his family. Links to the episode are below:

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The convo starts off centered around the Yellow Jackets in France, the global rise in populism and how Ben sees BREXIT hurting businesses around the world.

It then moves on to South America, the Venezuelan conflict and what that looks like, not only in Venezuela but across the Americas. It’s a situation right on the edge of all out war. Ben discusses how FARC and ELN (The Colombian Narco-Terrorist Organizations) are currently interacting with the Maduro regime.

This was a wide ranging discussion and for those who don’t get a chance to think about business related cyber threats, financial threats, and operational threats need to have a listen and do some thinking about how the current issues will impact markets.

Ben is a fantastic contact to have, you can reach out to him at ben.hockman@gmail.com or on LinkedIn.

As always if you have any thoughts for Chris you can find him at:

chris@macro-ops.com

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Also, be sure to subscribe to the podcast and if you like what we are doing give us a review!

Macro Moves in Metals, Bonds and Currencies

This is a solo cast with me Chris D.

As a quantitative systematic trader, I look at price action to come up with a repeatable approach to trading the global macro space.

Generally speaking the markets don’t line up all together in a way that is easy to identify, but this last week everything lined up pointing to if not a major move, a very predictable setup.

I take a look at gold, bonds, currencies and a quick shot at equity indices.

Listen to it here:

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Hit me up with any thoughts or questions you might have at:

chris@macro-ops.com

Twitter

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Macro Ops Podcast: Alex, Tyler, Chris and Mr. B talk Macro Intelligence Report, Global Macro in the 90’s, Value, Systems Trading, Volatility, and Wealth

Chris hosts an epic 2.5+ hour Macro Ops roundtable with Alex Barrow, Tyler Kling and Mr. B.

Mr. B gets a call sign update to Mr. Bean…though that did not go as well as he had hoped.  

This is a monster podcast, unedited, long form, plug in and go deep with us.

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We start off right away with Alex talking about this month’s Macro Intelligence Report. He explains how a monster rally has left everyone in the rearview mirror and now people are starting to FOMO into the market after a nearly 20% rally from the December 26th lows.

We dig into Alex’s thinking at the end of 2018 of why the equity indexes had bottomed and what sentiment indicators he was looking at to feel confident. When everyone else was bearish it was interesting to see the reaction from fellow market participants after he posted a snipped of his report to Real Vision.

After this discussion we hit the following topics:

  • Bottoms, what are some reliable, repeatable bottom finding (not top selling) setups
  • Cash was the highest returning asset in 2018
  • Value investing with Mr. B.
  • Garret Motion $GTX up 60% since the market lows
  • Construction Partners $ROAD up 40% since the market lows
  • Differences between retail investors and institutional managers, retail DOES NOT HAVE TO BE STYLISTIC
  • Alex’s long term macro calls
    • Dollar
    • Rising interest rate regime
    • Equity volatility
    • 1960’s and 1970’s volatility
  • Venezuela, on the doorsteps of war?
  • Howard Marks latest note and anti-capitalism — You can find his note here
  • Alex, a political scientist, goes into some depth on capitalism
  • The craziness of 5:1 leverage to purchase a home…and a flashback to the 1990’s at 16% interest rates for home mortgages
  • Managing risk
  • Highlights of being a full time systems trader and nomad
  • Warren Buffett

After this barrage, Alex turns the tables on Chris and we learn a bit of his time before and during the military and where he got into systems trading. As a Marine he had visited Thailand and Indonesia during their debt crisis, and saw the effects of Russia defaulting on their currency as well as Pakistan and India getting nukes. He had a front row seat for some of the biggest events in global macro during the late 1990’s.

Barrage number two includes

  • Key requirements of a trading system
  • Buffett and Munger discussion
  • Humility, realizing that you suck but continuously learning from mistakes
  • Getting comfortable being uncomfortable, truly analyzing what you are doing wrong and getting better over time
  • Constant improvement
  • Ice baths, extreme heat, building mental toughness and resolve
  • Paper trading, backtesting, and getting experience
  • Trading and professional athletics
  • Systems position sizing
  • Macro and value position sizing
  • Catching the 3rd-7th innings and leave the 1st and 9th innings for the real heros
  • Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger…again
  • Tyler asks, would you switch places with Warren Buffett at 88 with all his wealth, or stay yourself? You know the answer.
  • Finding edges where people aren’t looking
  • The edge of not having a “style” to approach the market. Your account does not care if you are a value investor, global macro, momentum or any other style of investor
  • And we end with a biology break

Get in touch with us at:

Alex@macro-ops.com and @macroops on Twitter

Tyler Tyler@macro-ops.com @tylerhklng on Twitter

Chris chris@macro-ops.com @chrisdmacro on Twitter and Instagram

Macro Ops Podcast: Macro Musings Audio Version – China, EURUSD, Quants, Hardcore History, Breathing

Today’s episode is an audio expansion on the weekly Macro Musings email. Click here to see the written version.

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This is a solo episode, with me Chris, expanding on an article from Brian MacKenzie (link here) about the importance of nasal breathing.

Other topics discussed:

  • China and their ownership of the US Film industry and the lack of any anti-Chinese sentiment in US Films.
  • Ken Griffin’s, Founder of Citadel Capital, recent $238 million penthouse purchase in NYC and the book The Quants.
  • $3 billion dollar inflows into Vanguard Total International Bond ETF is a short bet on USD, one of the most crowded trades currently, not just in macro but across the board.
  • Dan Carlin’s amazing Hardcore History podcast, Blueprint for Armageddon an epic tale of the Somme in World War I.
  • My EURUSD trade setup and how I approach Macro Trading as a systematic quant.
  • And finally an interpretation of a quote from the ever belligerent Charlie Munger.

Follow me @chrisdmacro on Twitter and Instagram

Macro-Ops Podcast: Trading Strategies, Curve Fitting and Over Optimization

Chris and Tyler talk about curve fitting and over optimization of trading strategies.

This episode is a lot shorter than normal, we touch on a single subject vs covering a wide variety of subjects. If you like these short and pointed episodes and want more, let us know! If you prefer long form drop us a line. Tell us what YOU want!

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If you want to play this in a different podcast app, this is the RSS Feed https://anchor.fm/s/870c5d0/podcast/rss

In this episode Chris starts off talking about what he looks for in a trading strategy:

  • Predictability – the ability to predict a trade is forthcoming, not predicting the results.  
  • Repeatable – does this setup repeat over time?
  • Definable – can you clearly define the parameters?

Tyler and Chris then go on to discuss the following:

What does over fitting look like in trading systems?

Why seeking high win rate systems leads us down the path of over fitting.

“Finding” setups in random walk price data. How our brains are easily fooled by randomness.

Testing logic on in-sample and out-of-sample data (training and test data sets). A model that works well on both sets is best.

Why resilience is our true goal for a trading system. If it isn’t fragile, it has more potential to last over time.

How to deal with black swan risk. (Risk that doesn’t show up in any past data sets.)

Why robust systems are uncomfortable to sit through.

Why building a system that fits your temperament is the key to having success.

Finally we hit on why we all need to practice the basics of a system over and over. Get those reps in!

You can reach Tyler at @tylerhkling on Twitter and tyler@macro-ops.com

You can reach Chris at @chrisdmacro on Twitter and chris@macro-ops.com