Rarely do we investors get a market that we know is overvalued and that approaches such clearly defined limits as the bond market now. That is because there is a limit as to how negative bond yields can go. Their expected returns relative to their risks are especially bad. If interest rates rise just a […]
George Soros was quoted in a speech he gave to the Committee for Monetary Research and Education back in the early 90’s as follows: Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise […]
Michael Marcus turned $30,000 into $80 million over a 20 year period — not too shabby. He was profiled in Schwager’s original classic Market Wizards, giving one of the more impressive interviews in a book filled with many.
Market sentiment is a fuzzy concept. In its most basic sense, it’s the aggregate beliefs and moods of actors that comprise the total market. It’s tough to measure, gauge and test. And so, it’s often discarded completely or superfluously used to confirm one’s own biases.
“And, at any point in time, the richest traders are often the worst traders. This, I will call the cross-sectional problem: At a given time in the market, the most successful traders are likely to be those that are best fit to the last cycle. This does not happen too often with dentists or pianists—because […]
If your goal is to become a master global macro trader or investor, then you need to become a devout student of economic history. The books below cover various episodes of credit driven speculation throughout history. Studying these instances will show you that humans tend to repeat similar periods of economic delusion time and time […]