A Monday Dozen

The thing to do is watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get- nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. ~ Jesse Livermore

Every weekend I scroll through probably a 100+ charts. I figured I’d try sharing a dozen of the more interesting ones that catch my eye. Let me know if you find any value in this.

1. USDCAD has broken below a major support line (chart is a weekly).

2. Small-caps (IWM) bounced off their lower Bollinger Bands this past week (chart is a weekly).

3. As did crude (CL_F) (chart is a weekly).

4. Crude’s skew is at extremes suggesting a bottom is near (chart via @MacroCharts).

5. Total spec positioning in commodities futures at RECORD low levels (chart via @MacroCharts).

6. 10-year USTs (ZN_F) are trading above their monthly Bollinger Band. Reversal coming soon?

7. Consensus Inc. UST 10yr bullish sentiment nearing overbought levels.

8. AAII Net Bull/Bear Sentiment near Dec 18’ lows despite recent rally in stocks.

9. Investors continue to pile into credit after record outflows in December. This is a bullish sign for stocks as credit tends to lead equities.

10. NAAIM Exposure Index shows that investors are not buying this rally.

11. Morgan Stanley’s US Cycle indicator recently entered the “Downturn” phase.

12. Silver (SI_F) broke out of a descending wedge last week on strong volume. Commercial hedgers are net-long silver for only the second time in history.


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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.