A Monday Dozen [CHART PACK] #4

Be a disciplined rational investor. Follow logic and analysis rather than sales pitches, whims, or emotion. Assume you may have an edge only when you can make a rational affirmative case that withstands your attempts to tear it down. Don’t gamble unless you are highly confident you have the edge. As Buffett says, “Only swing at the fat pitches. ~ Ed Thorp

Good morning!

We’ve got decelerating global growth and falling earnings but flush liquidity, EMs turning a possible corner, their central banks pivoting hard, a potential EMFX long, and low recession probabilities + much more. Let’s jump in…

1) BofAML’s Global EPS model is predicting an ongoing earnings recession.

2) Global PMI and New Orders are now below 50 (contracting), global trade growth fell further in June, US ISM New Orders Index is “catching down” to the rest of the world, and DM PMIs continue to dip… (charts via MS)

3) Global Real GDP growth slowed sharply over the past year and looks set to continue to do so (chart via MS).

4) But liquidity (ie, financial conditions) remain very loose.

5) And this is interesting… EM manufacturing is outperforming DM for the first time in over 7-years (chart via HSBC).

6) After significant tightening last year, financial conditions in emerging markets are now starting to ease (chart via HSBC).

7) No doubt being helped along by a significant turn in EM monetary policy over the last 6-months (chart via HSBC).

8) Yet, fund flows into EM remain weak (chart via HSBC).

9) If EM is bottoming then I like the Mexican peso here (short USDMXN). It’s a technically nice looking setup. We may see a break lower this week, keep your eyes peeled.

10) Plus, MXN offers a LOT of positive carry right now.

11) The US Conference Board Employment Trend Index is starting to bleed (chart is month-over-month %). It’s not signaling that its time to sell your stocks, grab your children, and run for the hills quite yet. But it’s something we should keep an eye on.

12) The St. Louis Fed’s Smoothed Recession Probabilities indicator says we’re not in the “danger zone” at the moment. The indicator is “a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.”

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.