A Monday Dozen #2

In the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: ‘How many people are left to act on this particular idea?’ You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your idea. ~ Michael Marcus

Good morning! We’ve got slowing global growth, the Fed’s room to maneuver, Canada Surprising, and some falling ROE… Here’s your Monday Dozen chart pack.

1. The percentage of PMIs around the world is still positive but shrinking fast.

2. The OECD Total CLI is at its lowest level since the GFC.

3. But it looks like it may be starting to base on a MoM and YoY basis.

4. The market is way ahead of the Fed but there’s still plenty of room for it to become more so.

5. Ed Yardeni’s Boom-Bust Barometer (dotted red line) suggests a pullback in equities may be coming.

6. The relative valuations of European banks are in the 1st percentile of their 10Y history — that’s the lowest since the height of the dot-com bubble. Is there any price at which EU banks become a buy?

7. Bonds and equities are telling two different stories. One of them is very wrong.

8. Here’s the MO Composite Sentiment Index. It includes a number of short and long-term sentiment and positioning data. Investors were pretty bearish going into last week but became more positive by Friday and are now slightly bearish/neutral heading into Monday.

9. What’s going on in Canada? America’s tophat has the highest Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) reading, by far. That means the economic data is coming in more positive than the consensus forecast.

10. Relative yields between the US and key trading partners have recently turned against the dollar (black line). Will the dollar follow suit or just shrug it off?

11. Relative growth though is keeping the dollar strong — at least for the moment.

12. Aggregate Return on Equity (ROE) may be rolling over again after it found a bottom in mid-17’.

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Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.


Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

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Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

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