This is the equity curve for the Crypto Momentum System since it launched back in October of 2023.
This by the way is how the returns would look if you simply waited in cash (USD, USDC, USDT or a US Dollar stable coin) until the signals fired.
If you look at crypto from the perspective of what’s talked about online, you’d think that you need to be glued to your screens 24-7, suffer 90% drawdowns every few weeks, and have your crypto wallets hacked just for the privilege of trading crypto.
That’s not how we do it.
The returns are about as calm as they can be (and yes this is crypto), but also they are very concentrated periods when they perform.
- Total Returns 58%
- CAGR 27.8%
Drawdown 11% - Sharpe Ratio 1.57
Sortino Ratio 1.99
Starting in October 2023, there really have only been about three months of opportunity, that’s about 19 months of patience for three months of action.
But, if you participated you are looking at a Sharpe Ratio around 1.5, a 11% drawdown and a 58% return for your troubles.
That’s hard to beat anywhere else in the market…on a consistent basis.
And unlike any of the past crypto bull markets that we’ve had, 2021 and 2017 specifically, this current bull market hasn’t hit the most active peak returns…yet.
That isn’t to say this bull market is going to be exactly like the previous, but we can conclude that what we have right now is working.
If we have a real edge here, we should see similar results in other markets. That is given that our system is a momentum system based on price breaking out.
This edge happens in all sorts of markets (though it’s better in crypto), so let’s take a look at the same strategy on the top US Equities during the same window.
More linear (less concentrated) but that’s expected as we are trading a basket of the largest stocks in the world. Nonetheless, it’s still a very nice edge.
We can’t get as good of data on crypto pairs but assuming the returns are similar we can see how it performs with equities over longer periods, and again, the same.
While we’re at it, let’s see how it’s held up before the Covid era of money printing.
My data set only goes back to 2010, but we can see it holds up.
So we have a repeatable edge not just in crypto but in equities as well.
All this is to say, we haven’t seen the real move yet in crypto looking at previous crypto markets.
I’ll be digging deeper into the more exciting side of the upcoming crypto bull market with a weight of the evidence approach to what I think is available.
When it kicks off, our systems will be firing on all cylinders…patience
Hit me up if you have any questions.
If you are interested in the strategies that I use.
And you can work with me on building out your trading business in the Trading Thunderdome.
