The Fed Is Hiking Rates In December And What That Means For Markets

The all important job numbers came out Friday. US employers hired at their strongest clip so far this year and more importantly wage growth ticked up.

  • Non-farm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 271,000 in the month of October
  • Average hourly earnings of private-sector workers rose 9 cents to $25.20
  • This puts hourly earnings up 2.5% year over year (a substantial increase in wage growth over the previous 6 years)
  • The unemployment rate fell to 5.0% (its lowest reading since April 2008)

The strong jobs print helps solidify the likelihood of seeing the Fed move rates higher in December, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Wieseman notes (via WSJ):

“Strong report, reversing the weakness seen in the prior two months. With [Chairwoman] Janet Yellen having suggested a low bar for moving in her testimony Wednesday, this should leave little doubt the Fed is going to hike rates in December barring some sort of unexpected shock in the next month.”

The market is now pricing in a 72% likelihood that the Fed will hike next month. 

Does a 25bps hike really matter?

A lot of people have been asking me why should I care about a rate hike, it’s only 25bps. My response is that you should care, and you should care a lot.

It’s not the absolute amount that matters in the rate hike. 25 basis points is insignificant in and of itself, and it wouldn’t matter if the Fed raises 25 or 15 basis points. (Keep reading….)

 

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

Brandon Beylo

Value Investor

Brandon has been a professional investor focusing on value for over 13 years, spending his time in small to micro-cap companies, spin-offs, SPACs, and deep value liquidation situations. Over time, he’s developed a deeper understanding for what deep-value investing actually means, and refined his philosophy to include any business trading at a wild discount to what he thinks its worth in 3-5 years.

Brandon has a tenacious passion for investing, broad-based learning, and business. He previously worked for several leading investment firms before joining the team at Macro Ops. He lives by the famous Munger mantra of trying to get a little smarter each day.

AK

Investing & Personal Finance

AK is the founder of Macro Ops and the host of Fallible.

He started out in corporate economics for a Fortune 50 company before moving to a long/short equity investment firm.

With Macro Ops focused primarily on institutional clients, AK moved to servicing new investors just starting their journey. He takes the professional research and education produced at Macro Ops and breaks it down for beginners. The goal is to help clients find the best solution for their investing needs through effective education.

Tyler Kling

Volatility & Options Trader

Former trade desk manager at $100+ million family office where he oversaw multiple traders and helped develop cutting edge quantitative strategies in the derivatives market.

He worked as a consultant to the family office’s in-house fund of funds in the areas of portfolio manager evaluation and capital allocation.

Certified in Quantitative Finance from the Fitch Learning Center in London, England where he studied under famous quants such as Paul Wilmott.

Alex Barrow

Macro Trader

Founder and head macro trader at Macro Ops. Alex joined the US Marine Corps on his 18th birthday just one month after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He subsequently spent a decade in the military. Serving in various capacities from scout sniper to interrogator and counterintelligence specialist. Following his military service, he worked as a contract intelligence professional for a number of US agencies (from the DIA to FBI) with a focus on counterintelligence and terrorist financing. He also spent time consulting for a tech company that specialized in building analytic software for finance and intelligence analysis.

After leaving the field of intelligence he went to work at a global macro hedge fund. He’s been professionally involved in markets since 2005, has consulted with a number of the leading names in the hedge fund space, and now manages his own family office while running Macro Ops. He’s published over 300 white papers on complex financial and macroeconomic topics, writes regularly about investment/market trends, and frequently speaks at conferences on trading and investing.

Macro Ops is a market research firm geared toward professional and experienced retail traders and investors. Macro Ops’ research has been featured in Forbes, Marketwatch, Business Insider, and Real Vision as well as a number of other leading publications.

You can find out more about Alex on his LinkedIn account here and also find him on Twitter where he frequently shares his market research.