Bitcoin and blockchain

Market SitRep – Blockchain

In this week’s Market SitRepBlockchain we discuss Bitcoin and the revolutionary blockchain technology it utilizes. We then review recent central bank announcements and take a look at some monthly charts to get a big picture view of markets. 

A PDF of the presentation can be found here.

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market sitrep

Market SitRep – Max Dissonance

This week’s Market SitRepMax Dissonance begins with a discussion of the “risk on, risk off” phenomenon where both defensive and offensive assets are catching a bid. We then take a hard look at long term equity valuations and explain why holding dry powder is more important than ever before.

A pdf of the presentation can be found here. Read more

stock market bull

Could We Experience Another ’90s-Style Bull Run?

The recent bullish action in the markets makes it fitting that we play devil’s advocate – something we at Macro Ops refer to as “Red Teaming.”

We’ve been bearish when it comes to the overall markets for about a year now. And we still believe the bearish hypothesis is the most probable outcome. But the unrelenting retracement in credit and equities over the past month forces us to investigate the bull position – one must always respect price.

Our team at Macro Ops usually view markets through the lens of liquidity (e.g. cost of money + spreads). The liquidity model we built has predicted future market returns to a remarkable degree, but our modeling has become more convoluted now that interest rates are near zero and the real cost of money is negative. There isn’t much past data we can use to evaluate this type of environment (other than the Great Depression). What’s more, this environment makes game treeing policy decisions a tough code to crack, since actors have more incentive to take extreme measures in both directions. So although our model is still sound, it’s prone to give off false signals. Put another way, it’s hard to determine with full confidence where the market ends up 6-9 months from now. Read more

Market SitRep Video Newsletter

Market SitRep – Reflation Redux

This episode of the Market SitRepReflation Redux starts off with a discussion of China’s addiction to credit expansion and debt. We also touch on the crude oil market and explain why we think the “reflation” trade is nothing more than a short-term hope jag. Finally we cover quant/technical analysis of the S&P 500.

A PDF of the slide show can be found here. Read more

global debt crisis

The 4 Horsemen Of The Global Deleveraging Apocalypse Part II: A Neutrino Debt Bomb

This is part 2 of our 4-part series on the global deleveraging which is now beginning and is expected to last over the next 2 to 4 years. We anticipate a lot of pain for the global economy in the form of crashing security markets and depression-like economic conditions. This series will cover how we believe this crisis is likely to play out. We will not only help you understand what’s going on, but we will show you how to protect yourself from the coming economic turmoil. We’ll even show you how you can profit from it. If you missed part 1, you can find it here. Enjoy part 2 below: A Neutrino Debt Bomb.

global debt crisis

“And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, ‘Come and see’.  And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take stability and growth from the earth, and that they should demand restructurings from one another: And there was given unto him a great ability to inflate and monetize.” ~ Bible (With a few changes by me)

Debt… Debt… Debt… Debt… Debt………Debt. It’s been discussed so much over the years that it feels like kicking a debt horse at this point (ehem, sorry).

Here’s the thing though… we have to talk about it. Debt is the most important (and misunderstood) dynamic of the economic machine. Debt is the cause of all our current economic ills.

Do you want to understand why there’s slow growth in the developed world? Well, it’s because of debt.

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Market SitRep – Pushing On A String

This episode of the Market SitRepPushing On A String reveals how we’ve exited the era of central bank dominance. The “all powerful” policies put in place have stopped working and central banks around the world have lost control over the markets.

After we hate on central banking for a bit, we touch on the probability of a United States recession. The data is looking grim for stocks to say the least…

And finally we go over a few price charts of

  • S&P 500
  • Small Caps
  • Gold
  • IBB Biotech ETF
  • EUR/USD
  • And Bitcoin

A pdf of the presentation can be accessed here. Read more

Short Airline Industry

I Am Serious (About Shorting Aircraft Lessors)… And Don’t Call Me Shirley!

Short Aircraft Lessors

We can’t help but think of the classic 80’s comedy Airplane! when talking about aircraft lessors. The story here is just as funny. And it’s not a new story either. It’s the same thing we see over and over again. The repetitiveness is what makes us laugh.

What exactly are we talking about? We’re talking about excess. We’re also talking about piss poor planning. These often times seem to be the qualities embedded in every top level executive. Read more

oil pump at night
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The Problem With Oil ETFs

By now, even those who don’t watch the markets have noticed the epic 75% fall in crude oil. It’s pretty hard to miss given that gas prices’ now start with the number 1, instead of 2 or 4. And most of us are happy about the extra hundred bucks or so to spend each month.

But now with oil so low, our team at Macro Ops is constantly getting calls from our gambling friends, asking how best to play the oil “rebound.” The usual line we hear is “Surely oil can get back to the 60’s, right? Look what happened after 2008, oil had a 240% gain from the lows! Doubling my money is guaranteed!”

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USD Macro Trend

The Dollar Deke

Webster defines a linchpin as “a person or thing that holds something together: the most important part of a complex situation or system”. In global economics, there’s always a critical factor or “linchpin” on which everything rests.

Right now, that linchpin is the US dollar. Its movements will determine the fate of global markets. The USD trend is the biggest macro trend in the world. It affects everything from equities to commodities and bonds. Read more

Market SitRep

Market SitRep – Tech Shenanigans

Check out the latest edition of the Market SitRep — Tech Shenanigans.

In this episode, we cover:

  • Updates on the USD bull market.
  • The unsustainability of the tech industry, with a special focus on Zenefits and Workday.
  • The weak jobs theme along with a technical review of staffing companies we’re looking to short.
  • A chart analysis of the S&P 500.

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