Entries by Aldrin Gonzales

Bridgewater’s Five Stages of a Sovereign’s Life Cycle

According to Ray Dalio (and we believe this as well) there are four drivers of economic growth: culture, indebtedness, competitiveness, and luck. And the two most positive influences on these growth drivers are [1] the psychological framework that creates people’s desire to work, borrow and consume and [2] war. It’s these different socioeconomic experiences that […]

Variant Perception and How the Market Is Always Wrong

“The generally accepted view is that markets are always right — that is, market prices tend to discount future developments accurately even when it is unclear what those developments are. I start with the opposite view. I believe the market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the […]

Spread Thin — How The Fed Manipulates Financial Spreads

“The Fed is manipulating markets…” “Central Banks are destroying capitalism…” “Yellen has distorted true price discov… yada-yada-yada” We’ve all heard the constant chorus of central bank bashing. The ridicule comes from a diverse crowd, ranging from retail Joe Schmoes to prominent hedge fund managers… and I admit, Fed economists make for easy targets.

SitRep – If You Can’t Beat ’em, join ’em

The markets are rallying hard! In this Market Sitrep we explore what’s ahead for U.S. equities in the near term. We examine the 3 main drivers of the rally, and then dive into why this breakout may actually have some legs. The episode finishes with a look at all the stocks we have bought or […]