Entries by Aldrin Gonzales

Lessons from a Trading Great: Bruce Kovner

Bruce Kovner retired in 2011 from Caxton Associates, the hedge fund he founded and ran for 28 years. Over that time the fund returned an average of 21 percent a year since its inception. In comparison, the SPX averaged just 11%. Kovner had only one losing year (in 94’). Before Caxton, while trading at the […]

Bridgewater’s Five Stages of a Sovereign’s Life Cycle

According to Ray Dalio (and we believe this as well) there are four drivers of economic growth: culture, indebtedness, competitiveness, and luck. And the two most positive influences on these growth drivers are [1] the psychological framework that creates people’s desire to work, borrow and consume and [2] war. It’s these different socioeconomic experiences that […]

Variant Perception and How the Market Is Always Wrong

“The generally accepted view is that markets are always right — that is, market prices tend to discount future developments accurately even when it is unclear what those developments are. I start with the opposite view. I believe the market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the […]