If your goal is to become a master global macro trader or investor, then you need to become a devout student of economic history. The books below cover various episodes of credit driven speculation throughout history. Studying these instances will show you that humans tend to repeat similar periods of economic delusion time and time […]
We’re trading in some truly interesting times. Check out the index below from Credit Suisse depicting contagion risk across global markets and asset classes. It’s now showing that global markets and assets are at their highest correlation since the index was created.
Bruce Kovner retired in 2011 from Caxton Associates, the hedge fund he founded and ran for 28 years. Over that time the fund returned an average of 21 percent a year since its inception. In comparison, the SPX averaged just 11%. Kovner had only one losing year (in 94’). Before Caxton, while trading at the […]
Over a third and growing quickly. That’s the share of the market that’s now comprised of blind sheep passive indexers. That much passive money is nothing to sneeze at. Call me old-fashioned, but I was originally led to believe that the function and role of markets in a capitalist society was to direct capital to […]
According to Ray Dalio (and we believe this as well) there are four drivers of economic growth: culture, indebtedness, competitiveness, and luck. And the two most positive influences on these growth drivers are  the psychological framework that creates people’s desire to work, borrow and consume and  war. It’s these different socioeconomic experiences that […]
If you’re wondering why “Adam Smith” is in quotations, it’s because the name is the pseudonym adopted by the author who wrote The Money Game, a 1967 market classic. In the author’s own words, the book is about “image and reality and identity and anxiety and money” — everything that makes up markets… Here’s some […]
Things could get real interesting in the next few months. On Oct. 17th a new SEC rule finally comes into play that will affect money market funds and liquidity across the financial sphere. There’s potential for some really big moves here.
“The generally accepted view is that markets are always right — that is, market prices tend to discount future developments accurately even when it is unclear what those developments are. I start with the opposite view. I believe the market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the […]
One of our favorite movies at Macro Ops is Terminator 2: Judgement Day. The early 90’s classic had Arnold at his best and changed the sci-fi action genre forever. People have always had a particular fear of technology and machines, but Terminator really solidified that picture. How many times have you heard the “Skynet” argument […]